Research On Marine Traffic Black-Spot Identification And Decision Support Based On Fuzzy Clustering

The problems of marine traffic safety have always been the key concern of maritime department.The marine traffic accidents are inevitable companion to the marine traffic,and absolute traffic safety does not exist.It is essential to reduce marine traffic accidents,improve the level of marine traffic safety and improve the marine traffic situation.If the number of marine traffic accidents is effectively controlled,the marine traffic accidents can be reduced quickly.Therefore,it is a very urgent and important work to carry out the key researches on the traffic accident-prone water areas.At present,most of the researches on traffic accident-prone water areas are from the qualitative and fuzzy view,while corresponding researches on road traffic safety are quite mature,which can be helpful to expand the research ideas of marine traffic safety.Since the marine traffic accident-prone area and the road traffic black-spot not only have similarities in the concept,but also have some similarities in the accident spatial characteristics,it is necessary to learn the researches on road traffic black-spot to further study the marine traffic accident-prone areas.By combining the spatial characteristics of marine traffic accidents with the accident severity,and summarizing the definition of the road traffic black-spot,in this paper,traffic accident-prone water area is defined as the black-spot of marine traffic,and conditions of marine traffic black-spot is further specified.In this paper,a new identification method of marine traffic black spot was adopted,which combined firefly clustering algorithm with the weighted average method based on the severity of the accident.Firstly,the firefly clustering algorithm was used to cluster the marine traffic accidents from the spatial level,and the accident-prone areas were found.Then,the clustering blackness value of each accident and the mean value of all the clustering blackness values were calculated using the weighted average method of accident level.With the mean value taken as the judging threshold of black-spot,the identification model of marine traffic black-spot was constructed.Taking the marine traffic accidents took place in Shenzhen western port area from the year 2003 to November 2014 as the research objects,the model constructed in this paper was applied on make case study,and finally,seven marine traffic black-spots were obtained in the study area.In this paper,the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP)method is used to analyze the causes of the marine traffic black-spots.From the aspects of the natural environment,port environment and traffic environment,the identified black-spots of marine traffic were analyzed,and the main factors influencing the formation of black-spot were obtained.Similarly,in this part,taking Shenzhen western pot waters as the application example,based on the identification consequences of black-spot obtained from the above analysis,a risk indicator system was established,and the analytic hierarchy process was introduced to analyze the causes of these seven black-spots identified above.In the end,the vital factors influencing the black-spots were summarized.And the countermeasures to the prevention and treatment of each black-spot and related suggestions for improvement were put forward respectively.Based on the previous results of theoretical researches,the identification analysis and decision support system of marine traffic black-spot is established in this paper based on the development platform of Baidu Map,so as to visualize the spatial distribution characteristics of marine traffic accidents.Combining with the identification method of marine traffic accidents black-spot,the ability of analyzing the marine accidents information can be greatly improved.In conclusion,the identification model of marine traffic black-spot is suitable for port waters.By identifying the marine traffic black-spot and finding out the core influencing factors on the black-spot,this paper provides a basis for the maritime departments to carry out the identification of high risk waters and the formulation of rectification schemes and countermeasures,meanwhile,it provides a measure method for the analysis of marine traffic safety status.