Feasibility Study Of Inflation Targeting

After the founding，Chinese monetary policy had been changed several times. And themonetary policy framework of the exchange rate target and the money supply target has beenseted from1998. In recent years, as China’s economic and financial development, thecurrent nominal monetary policy of dual anchors exhibits irreconcilable contradictions, andnow there are more and more difficults to cope with the complicated situation. In theinternational arena, from the1990s, inflation targeting which was pioneered in New Zealandhas been enabled, until now, there have been more than forty countries have adopted thisnew monetary policy.As a new monetary policy, Inflation targeting is a combination of rules and discretion,which is focused on monetary policy to ensure price stability objective can be achieved fromthe system construction, it is clear by the government and the respective responsibilities ofthe central bank, giving independence and accountability of the central bank’s monetarypolicy operations, enhance the transparency of monetary policy to stabilize inflationexpectations, and ultimately the goal of price stability, monetary policy is the elimination ofthe non-uniformity of time. In practice, the measure of inflation is not unique, so I chose thetarget indicators are also different, the main difference is in the name of inflation and coreinflation. Although the nominal rate of inflation is easier to understand, to be accepted by thepublic, but in theory, core inflation-a long-lasting trend inflation indicators describe amore appropriate target indicators, it is smaller volatility, more predictable and, therefore,gives the central bank greater flexibility in decision-making. DFI models using SVAR modelwith a linear combination of the form can be unbiased in both premise and stability of coreinflation calculated.From the timing of the introduction of inflation targeting, our country though inflationhas been relatively stable at a time, can still be introduced; combined with China ’s actualconditions, the core inflation rate is more suitable for our objectives and targets; terms ofcore inflation expansion rate of inflation targeting as the target index can be calculated usingSETAR model is an appropriate target range (100.2,101.0); multiple goals is worthconsidering an implementation approaches; although China’s central bank in skills,independent, transparency and other aspects have made great progress, but if you want toimplement inflation targeting, but also need to constantly improve the level of data toimprove the ability to predict inflation, strengthen information disclosure andcommunication, the establishment of accountability mechanisms, these are the futureimproved direction.A...