Balance Research Of The Demand And Supply On Agencypension Services In Shanghai

Shanghai is China’s first entered the aging of the city, now the city has formed a smallnumber of children, the elderly more than the number of the state. Agency pension relieson the market and society to solve the elderly’s the problems. It is more professional andstandardization, can supply more facilities and service personal for the elderly. Now it isvery popular in China. With the increasing number of elderly and needs to improve, agencypension supply situation is very slow. The most prominent conflict is the number of beds inthe supply, service mode and level can not meet the current needs of older age groups.In this paper, the aged services in Shanghai for the study, supply and demand balancefor content of the study.Combing the state of domestic and international research andrelated theories. Domestic research focused on overview and summary about pensionservices, demand, supply, and problems; foreign research focuses on the United States,Germany, Australia and Japan, the four countries the development of institutional pensionservices. At the theoretical level of exploration, not only absorbed the Maslow’s theory, thetheory from the old, elderly sub-culture theory knowledge, but also introduces the study ofWestern economics and social welfare as the theoretical support.The aged analysis of the current status of the service sector in Shanghai necessity andfeasibility of pension service as a starting point, an objective description of the process ofaging in Shanghai, the family pension and old-age home the plight of two modes, anddevelopment agencies that have agency pension advantage. Combined with the agedservice development process and emerging issues, a comprehensive exposition of supplypension services agency background and the principal contradiction in the currentShanghai pension services agency supply and demand analysis to the macro andmicro perspectives to start discussion.From the macro-demand, some data of survey on public opinion of Shanghai citizens pension will in2011investigated by Center ofShanghai Bureau of Statistics is used to illustrate the situation, the affecting factors ofagency pension service were selected to make cross-service analysis, and the currentdemand for old-age institutions are estimated; from the micro-demand, the demand ofpension services of the elderly who stayed was found out by investigation. From themacro-supply, four aspects are stated: the current size of agency pension services, locationlayout, funding and institutional support; from the micro-supply, make analysis ofsatisfaction of agency pension services of the elderly who stayed by using SQ. Throughboth supply and demand results, eight conflicts are presented including demand of differentproperties, different locations, different types of beds, project requirements and diversity ofdemand, funding sources and older endurance, staffing and demand, policy support andimplementation, the reasons are also mentioned.Summarizing the above analysis and using the adjusted Songjian Population ModeAge Gender Model Curve parameter estimation model and multiple regressionmodels to estimate the number of beds in the next10years, and get the futuredevelopment of the most optimal institution endowment scale. In the end, by comparingthe investigation and research results with the actual development of Shanghai, this paperput forward the policy recommendations aim to solve the imbalance contradiction betweensupply and demand.