A Research Of Risk Monitoring And Warning System Of International Payments Surplus-type Imbalance

In recent years, due to the long-term development of Chinese macroeconomy, coupled with the expected appreciation of the RMB, the currency spreads and asset prices and other various factors inside and outside, it results in continued large balance of payments surplus in China and meanwhile the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves which lead to negative impact to sustained and stable development of Chinese economy. Therefore, the strengthening of China's imbalance of international payments surplus-type monitoring and early warning, as the current macro-economic issue needs to be solved.In this paper, initially built the imbalance of international payments surplus-style system of monitoring and early warning indicators, proposed the use of indicator system for the large international payments surplus possible imbalance assessment, monitoring, early warning methods, and its validity through empirical data to test, the main contents include: 1, China's international balance of payments risk monitoring and early warning of the present situation of the main problems and the current improvement ideas.2, building type imbalance in China's international balance of payments surplus risk monitoring and early warning system, including target selection, screening, validation, warning range and weight of the set, the composite index of synthesis.3, using historical data, the imbalance of international payments surplus-style system of monitoring and early warning indicators of the overall effect of the empirical test sample.We build the imbalance of international payments surplus-style risk warning system for monitoring indicators, including four coincident indicators, the 10 leading indicators and reference 5. By using non-parametric estimation methods to determine the critical value of each index, and according to principal component analysis to determine the weight of each index, the Composite Index and the synthesis of the crisis early warning indicators. Using historical data, the overall effect of positive test results showed that the index of coincident indicators system and the crisis to more accurately reflect the balance of payments surplus type and extent of the state of imbalance. System of leading indicators and long-term export growth, the U.S. business climate index, consumer confidence index, rate of change in real estate prices, stock market index of 5 is better early-warning indicators can be accurate at the appropriate time early warning signal. Two types of integrated early warning early warning indicators better.