The Environmental Risk Evaluation Research Of Mine Resourse Exploitation Based On Information Diffusion And Comprehensive Evaluation Method On Obscure Information

With the deterioration of environmental issues, the traditional method that is based on making environmental standards to control pollutions is now under challenge and this fact is making research on environmental risk evaluation gradually become the spotlight in the environmental research field. It turns out to be quite urgent to strengthen the risk evaluation method, to see through the risk in the mine resource exploitation process, to seek for vital scientific answers in environmental risk evaluation, which include, for instance, the sifting of indexes, the establishment of models and to provide scientific support for risk management.The exploitation conditions for mine resource is varied and complicated and factors are correlated to each other, of which many are obscure factors. They make impossible to use exact quantitative method on risk-related factors. Because of the limitation on development levels of human society, there might be other unknown or unforeseen risk-related factors. What's more, our country does not have any standard system for environmental risk evaluation in mine resource exploitation field which brings about inconveniences in daily risk evaluation works. In view of this, this thesis not only absorbs existing research achievements on risk evaluation, information diffusion and comprehensive method for obscure information evaluation, but also widely collects relative data and brings up an evaluation model that is based on information diffusion technology and comprehensive evaluation method so that it can effectively compensate for the lack of information, make better use of obscure sample information as well as collectivize sample process. The exploration and development in the field is helpful for us to perfect environmental risk evaluation system and settle some practical problems.The article describes the developing trend and present situation of environmental risk evaluation during mine resource exploitation both domestically and abroad. Then through full-scale summaries, it identifies potential risk factor that might affect mine resource exploitation programs under national conditions and establishes a scientific and practical environmental risk evaluation index system during mine resource exploitation from four aspects including natural risk, exploitation risk, political risk and economical risk. What's more, it analyzes advantages and disadvantages of traditional risk evaluation and risk decision-making method, introduces relative theories such as information diffusion and comprehensive evaluation method on obscure information and establishes environmental risk evaluation model during mine resource exploitation based on information diffusion and comprehensive evaluation method on obscure information. At last, through empirical analysis by the model, the article objectively and exactly assesses environmental risks during mine resource exploitation and gives reason suggestions on the sustainable development and circumvent of environmental risks during mine resource exploitation.The thesis achieves the following:1. The article establishes a comprehensive and brand-new evaluation index system. According to the research development and the practical conditions in our national mine resource exploitation, combined with typical empirical analysis, it establishes a comparatively prefect and systematic environmental risk evaluation index system from four aspects including natural risk, exploitation risk, political risk and economical risk.2. The article explores applications of information diffusion and comprehensive evaluation method on obscure information in environmental risk evaluation process. Under the rule of initiative, it uses processing technology for obscure information to make obscure process research on mine resource exploitation's environmental risk evaluation model. This make it possible for policy makers to make decisions dynamically and make the judgment more reasonable and systematic.3. The article gives out reasonable suggestions for risk circumvent of environmental risk in domestic mine resource exploitation. It applies the mine reso urce exploitation's environmental risk evaluation model, based on information diffusion and comprehensive evaluation method on obscure information, to the actual evaluation process in a certain mine exploitation program. Then, by analyzing irresistible natural risks and other risks such as exploitation risks, social risks and economical risks, it gives out reasonable suggestions on sustainable development for domestic mine resource exploitation and encourages further development in this field.