Research On Network Public Opinion Communication Modeling Under Uncertain Environment

With the development of internet technology, human society is gradually entering the information age. Internet not only offers us convenient access to information, but also provides a channel to spread information for us. The characteristics of the real-time, openness and convenience drives more and more users to participate in the dissemination of internet public opinion.In view of all those characteristics and the number of participates, we have to consider the factors of the internet public opinion on some of the objective existence of the impact, but these factors are often non deterministic type. We will adopt probability theory to research if there have enough historical data. In the absence of adequate historical data or lack of information in the case, we can use uncertainty theory to study these problems containing uncertainty phenomenon. Thus, it is of practical meaning to study the problem of actual internet public opinion form the view point of uncertainty theory.Firstly, in this paper, the influence factors of the internet public opinion feedback(validity degree, interest degree) and the degree of feedback intention internet public opinion are classified and represented by three uncertainty sets from “high”, “middle” and “low”, respectively. By setting the “If-Then” rules to build uncertain inference rule base, the feedback system of internet public opinion based on the uncertain inference rule base is established. Then, by building uncertain inference systems and setting criterion, we achieve the feedback results of netizen. Secondly,aiming at some uncertain factors existing in the process of internet public opinion dissemination, the dissemination process of internet public opinion as a dynamic uncertainty process in this paper. By building three uncertain differential equation models of “latent –model”, “outbreak–stationary model” and “recession model” to describe the three stages of internet public opinion.Finally, the effectiveness of the modeling approach is checked through the event that the tap water benzene content exceeds bid of Gansu Lanzhou water stupid content.The main innovative points of this paper are given as follows:(1) describe the uncertain factors with uncertain variables in the process of internet public opinion dissemination; thus achieve the quantitative goal.(2) study the problem of feedback of internet public opinion by uncertain inference, which is unprecedented. It drives the netizen describe the factors of the feedback information with three different uncertain sets.(3) describe the dynamic process of internet public opinion dissemination into uncertain process for the first time. Particularly, apply the uncertain differential equation to construct the three transmission models of internet public opinion.