The Application Of Fuzzy-AHP And Projection Pursuit In Dam Safety Risk Evaluation

Since the 21st century, with the social and economic development, our country's water ideas is also conversing. Ministry of Water Resources put forward a set of new ideas about water and a series of new concepts. Including the concept of harmony with flood and nature; water ideas of combining engineering measures with non-engineering measures; ideas of using systems theory and risk management and changing from flood control to flood management; ideas of transforming from focusing construction of embankment, reservoirs and other projects, to focusing construction of completed flood control system; ideas of changing from trying to eliminate flood disasters completely to undertaking moderate risks; and so on . these new ideas suggest that our country's constructions and managements of water control projects have come into a higher developing stage, risk and risk management have been put on the agenda. Through risk analysis and according to relevant laws, regulation and standards, as the continuation and strengthening of dam safety management, dam safety risk assessment, including a series of strategy and implementation process, defines the major risks and reinforcement measures of dangerous dam and becomes the basis of capital flows and management strategy, so that we can reasonably run the funds distribution and settle the shortage of funds used in eliminating dam danger and dam reinforcement. Using the risk analysis technology which contains different kinds of factors into the dam project safety, it replaces traditional ultimate strength analysis method which is used to get correct security situation, that is to say, identify, analyses and assess different kinds of risks that may happen in dam operation and generally evaluate the possibility and consequences of the risk, in order to guide the manager to reasonably and effectively take engineering measures or non-engineering measures, and drop dam risk to the level that downstream can bear, besides, adapt the project scale of eliminating danger to the downstream's economic situation and development, so that avoid the waste of funds.This article, with risk analysis technology, taking Wohu Hill Reservoir as example, uses reasonable index system and scientific math method to analyses, to define the dam safety situation and to find the major risks that influence dam safety, then analyses the reasons and put forward advices.The major content of this article is as follows:1. Statistically analyses the reasons that cause dam outburst and great accident at home and abroad, build the collection of risk factors, identify the major risk factors that affect the dam safety, and on this basis, construct the index system of dam safety risk evaluation.2. According to relevant safety monitoring material of Wohu Hill Reservoir dam on the basis of index system of risk evaluation that has been made, build judgment matrix of index system of safety risk evaluation about Wohu Hill Reservoir dam, and calculate with the soft of YAAHP.3. Based on the basic idea of synthetic evaluation theory and risk strategy theory, with the relevant fuzzy math and projection pursuit method, generally analyses and evaluate the dam safety situation of Wohu Hill Reservoir, analyses and compare the result of the evaluation and choose the feasible plan.4. According to the result of synthetic evaluation and the major factors that have been defined in the judgment matrix, formulate the corresponding risk management strategy and emergency preparedness.