| The studies on disaster prediction and retrofit for urban buildings have been attracted great attentiong and being as the bases of urban planning for earthquake resistance and disaster prevention, obvious development are attained. In order to make the results of disaster prediction more rational, urban planning of earthquake resistance and disaster prevention more effective, the researches on theory and methods for disaster prediction and correlative other topics are very meaningful. Under these backgrounds, the following aspects about seismic disaster prediction of urban buildings are mainly studied:1, The comprehensive seismic damage index is proposed, in which the influence of several factors, such as design standard, construction time, structure type and site category are considered. Base on the proposed seismic damage matrix, the simplified damage prediction method for urban buildings are given and the examples illustrated.2, The statistical relationships among seismic damage index and economic losses, seismic casualty, homeless people are studied. The datas in this study are gained from the cities where the prediction of earthquake disasters have been done. These relationships are used to establish formula for estimate seismic casualty and economic losses and practical some application are discussed.3, The proposed methods are used to the Seismic disaster mitigation planning of a certain city. Seismic damage index of the building structures and community are evaluated, and the economic losses, seismic casualties and homeless people caused by earthquake in future are calculated. The Comparation and analysis between these results and that from traditional methods indicate the feasibility and rationality of the methods put forwarded in this paper. |