Study On Stochastic Simulation Of Reservoir Inflow Flood And Expectation Frequency

In this paper, we use the dates of Long-tan water power station on Hong-shui River in Guang-xi province. In the first part ,we compute the site design flood of given design frequency (0.01%. 0.1%. 0.2% and 1%) using the design flood hydrograph .Then we get the design reservoir inflow flood of the same design frequency by the resultant discharge method .According to the computing value we compare the site design flood and design reservoir inflow flood of different time interval. In the second part, we choose four stations on the basin which up the Long-tan dam-site, and estimate a multidimensional auto regression model to model the daily discharge .Then test the model and the simulate effect of the modified flood series. The result indicate that using this multidimensional auto regression model on the basin to stochastic simulate the daily discharge is rational.The tradition hydrology frequency computation method is supposed that the universe is following the P-III distribution. Using the method of curve-fitting to estimate parameters according samples, and then get the design value. However the design value getting from this method which expectation frequency is larger than the design normal. This is one of the main reasons that the hydraulic engineering works in our country always have been broken in hydrology mean. To study the conception and method of calculation frequency is one of the most ways to solve the problem. The third part in this article has discussed the method which is based on the expectation frequency and use which we get the design value of 1% and 0.1% for some universes. And we also get the correlation diagram of Cs and calculation frequency of different sample sizes. Then we analyze the variation rule to get the primary discussion for the theory study and production.