Analysis Of Future Demend Of Highway Traffic In Hubei Province

With the development of modernization construction, highway traffic and transportation is playing an important role in general transportation system. Since the highway traffic in Hubei has been in special place of the transportation between the West and East, the North and South, so the plan and construction of Hubei transportation is significant to the development of economy of our province.The main basis of highway foundational facilities construction is the estimate of capacity of local highway facilities. By estimating the traffic capacity scientifically, the exact changing tendency of future traffic capability can be defined. Under the condition that transportation condition, road condition and measure standard are given, the capacity of highway means the maximum traffic capability per unit time. As a foundational work of highway design, the estimate and analysis of highway traffic capability, can not only define proper scale and construction mode of highway, but also provide scientific and theoretic support for layout of road net, feasibility analysis of road engineering, highway design and post estimate of highway construction, which is meaning of this subject study.In this paper, according to the characteristic of Hubei highway traffic, programming and construction of Hubei traffic were discussed, as well as the improvement of existing highway traffic and transportation system, and the programming local highway.According to the theory and method of traffic estimate, based on the artificial neural network theory, along with regression estimate and timing estimate technology, an advanced method of highway traffic estimate was applied.Using the traffic investigated in some parts of road, the feasibility of estimate of OD table was studied.A static multi-path matrix was designed. By the genetic arithmetic method, along with the matrix theory, the OD table was designed.The variable methods of future traffic estimate were discussed and compared. Applying the method of Prater, the future OD table was programmed.The traffic allot of static multi-path method and the software design were discussed.