| Over the past 40 years of reform and opening-up,China’s economy has witnessed rapid growth and rapid expansion.In 2010,China’s GDP surpassed Japan’s for the first time and became the world’s second largest economy.While developing rapidly,China’s economy also faces difficult challenges,especially after the 2008 global financial crisis,when the massive stimulus policies left a lot of "sequelae" to China’s economy.The loose monetary policy to release a large number of liquidity,explosion caused the virtual economy,and the real economy is facing rising costs,profit margins,investment growth is weak,situation of macro economic structural imbalance are becoming more and more serious,and gradually become obstacles to China’s future economic development and reform of high quality in eachother.Focusing on micro enterprises,the imbalance of economic structure shows that the investment of real enterprises flows to the financial field with high yield,while the investment scale of real economy drops sharply,resulting in the "shifting from real to virtual" investment structure.This structural contradiction is extremely harmful to the healthy development of China’s economy.At the macro level,excessive capital flow to the financial sector will cause bubble expansion,trigger a series of systemic financial risks,and lead to the overall circulation of production,circulation,distribution and consumption of social reproduction.At the micro level,enterprises relying too much on financial investment are prone to path dependence,which inhibits technological innovation capability for a long time and hinders enterprises’ transformation and upgrading and high-quality development.The contradiction between the unbalanced development of real economy and virtual economy was once covered by the rapid expansion of economic aggregate and rapid economic growth.However,with the inevitable arrival of the new normal,economic growth slowed down,and the harm caused by this structural contradiction to the economy in many aspects began to highlight and became increasingly severe.Supply side of the reform is to from our country economy high speed development phase transformation at low speed,high quality development of comprehensive reform,an important goal is to reform the content of "restructuring",while the 19 th big report clearly put forward the emphasis of "restructuring" in our country in the future is to develop the real economy,curb the macroeconomic "real to virtual"."Replacing business tax with value-added tax" is a fiscal and tax reform that plays an important role in supply-side reform.Structural tax cuts with increases and decreases are of great significance for adjusting economic structure and improving macroeconomic supply quality.The research content of the pilot reform policy of "replacing business tax with value-added tax" in the existing literature mostly focuses on extending the industrial chain,promoting the specialized division of labor,driving the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry,r&d and innovation,etc.However,few literatures pay attention to the influence of replacing business tax with value-added tax on enterprise investment structure from the real to the virtual.Neglecting the research from this perspective,it is impossible to provide the evidence of whether the replacement of business tax with value-added tax has the adjustment effect on macroeconomic imbalance from the perspective of theory and experience.Therefore,it is impossible to evaluate whether the structural tax reduction policy with some increase and some decrease can achieve the goal of adjusting the structure and promoting high-quality economic development in the supply-side reform."Replacing business tax with value-added tax" may have an impact on the investment structure of service and manufacturing enterprises through the following two ways: On the one hand,for service enterprises,"replacing business tax with value-added tax" changes them into vat taxpayers.When enterprises purchase fixed assets or intangible assets and other entity investments,the vat invoices obtained can be used as input deduction,which makes the entity investment has a significant tax reduction effect and the after-tax income increases.However,the financial industry has very little correlation with other industries,so there are almost no deductible items when enterprises make financial investment,and the tax reduction from the "replacing business tax with value-added tax" is extremely limited.Therefore,compared with financial investment,the relative return of real investment has a rising trend,and the change of the return pattern of the two types of investment may promote the structural adjustment of the investment structure of enterprises.On the other hand,for manufacturing enterprises,the taxable services provided by enterprises "replacing business tax with value-added tax" are mainly used as intermediate inputs of manufacturing industry,and mainly enter into real investment.After "replacing business tax with value-added tax",as VAT invoices can be obtained,the real investment in the manufacturing industry has a direct tax reduction effect,and the investment structure may also have a dynamic adjustment to return to the real economy.Furthermore,"replacing business tax with value-added tax" also promotes industrial division of labor among regions,reduces tax reduction effect and price level,and makes non-pilot areas more inclined to purchase taxable services in pilot areas.Therefore,the influence of "replacing business tax with value-added tax" on enterprise investment structure may be transmitted to non-pilot areas with the completion of deduction chain.Based on this,this text set about from the micro enterprise,from two aspects: direct and indirect,is given to add "camp" guide "virtual reality" off investment structure of the empirical evidence,main research contents include "camp" to the service companies directly impact of the investment structure,investment structure to the manufacturing enterprise of trade surplus,and enterprises in other area in surplus.Specifically,the work carried out in this paper includes the following aspects:First,this paper tests the impact of replacing business tax with value-added tax on the investment structure of service enterprises.Based on the data of service enterprises among listed companies from 2009 to 2015,this paper empirically tested the impact of "replacing business tax with value-added tax" on the financialization of enterprise investment by using the differential difference model.Taking service enterprises as samples,the samples in nonpilot areas are not affected by the policy,which can ensure the independent hypothesis of the control group and exclude the influence of regional spillover on the estimation results.Empirical results found that corporate investment structure’s response to "change" camp is very sensitive,before,during and after the reform pilot enterprises financial investment levels significantly decreased relative to other enterprises,suggests that by improving the entity investment income tax reform can effectively guide the enterprise investment structure of "virtual reality",improve the structure of the macroeconomic.In view of the possible problems of endogeneity and missing variables in the basic regression results,parallel trend test,placebo test and dynamic effect analysis were carried out respectively in this paper,and the results all strongly support this conclusion.Further heterogeneity analysis shows that the change of investment structure of non-state-owned enterprises is more sensitive than that of state-owned enterprises.Compared with low financing enterprises,high financing constrained enterprises are more active in capturing the dividends released by tax reform.Enterprises with higher degree of competition are more willing to carry out investment structure adjustment with tax reform,mainly because enterprises with higher degree of competition are faced with greater survival pressure;Since the tax reduction effect of replacing business tax with VALUE-ADDED tax mainly affects capital input,capital-intensive enterprises benefit more than labor-intensive enterprises,and the effect of "shifting from virtual to real" investment structure is more obvious.Secondly,this paper explores from multiple dimensions the intermediate mechanism of "replacing business tax with value-added tax" causing enterprise investment to "return to reality".The current theoretical explanation of the financialization of enterprise investment mainly includes profit-seeking theory and "reservoir" theory.Accordingly,if "replacing business tax with value-added tax" can cause the enterprise investment structure to "go from virtual to real",it indicates that this policy has a significant impact on at least one of these theoretical variables.In addition,in addition to the tax system,tax collection and management factors also affect the enterprise actual effect of the important variables,"camp" instead,collection unit from the original local taxation bureau to the irs,collection and administration law enforcement enhancements make vat after "camp" instead of increased,reducing camp "add" to the "virtual reality" off investment structure adjustment effect.Therefore,this paper constructs four intermediary indicators of relative return,internal business risk,external economic and environmental uncertainty and tax enforcement intensity,and uses the intermediary effect model to test the mechanism.The results show that "replacing business tax with value-added tax" can significantly change the relative balance between financial investment returns and real investment returns,and the profit-seeking motive promotes the "transition from virtual to real" investment structure of enterprises.At the same time,"replacing business tax with value-added tax" can reduce the uncertainty of enterprise operation,thus reducing the financial investment based on the motivation of "reservoir"."Replacing business tax with value-added tax" improves the tax enforcement in the region,and the improvement of tax enforcement will significantly increase the level of financial investment of enterprises,indicating that the change of tax levy level accompanying tax reform will to some extent offset the policy effect of "replacing business tax with value-added tax" on the adjustment of enterprise investment structure.Thirdly,this paper investigates the spillover effect of "replacing business tax with value-added tax" on enterprise investment structure."Replacing business tax with valueadded tax" is focused on the service industry,but the products and services provided by the pilot enterprises are mainly intermediate inputs for the manufacturing industry in the industrial chain.Because the services change to vat taxpayer,manufacturing industry from the manufacturer of purchased products and taxable services to obtain special invoices for value-added tax,as the input offset,so the effect of "camp to increase tax cuts and the resulting corporate investment structure adjustment,with the deduction chain of get through,spillover to the downstream of the industrial chain of manufacturing enterprise.Consider to add "camp" will cause a cross-regional operation and the change of the price mechanism,if the district level to distinguish between treatment group and control group,enterprise can lead to other areas because of affected by the policy,but not meet SUTVA conditions of the control group,so different from previous literature,this article in manufacturing intermediate input and "camp to increase the connection degree of industry" as a group,The enterprises involved in the replacement of business tax with value-added tax in intermediate input were the treatment group,and the enterprises not involved in the replacement of business tax with value-added tax were the control group.The dual difference model was used to test the guiding effect of the replacement of business tax with value-added tax on the reduction of manufacturing enterprises’ financial investment.The empirical results show that "replacing business tax with value-added tax" has significantly promoted the "transition from virtual to real" investment structure of manufacturing industry in the industrial chain,and the greater the proportion of investment related to"replacing business tax with value-added tax" in the intermediate investment,the more obvious the optimization and adjustment effect of investment structure.A series of robustness tests were consistent with the results of basic regression.Heterogeneity analysis shows that non-state-owned enterprises,enterprises with high financing constraints,enterprises with high industrial concentration and capital-intensive enterprises are more likely to have the adjustment effect of "removing the virtual and returning to the real" when the tax reform of "replacing business tax with value-added tax" is implemented.The heterogeneity analysis in this chapter is basically consistent with the basic regression conclusion in Chapter 3,indicating that the "replacing business tax with value-added tax"has basically the same impact on the "moving from virtual to real" investment structure of different types of enterprises,whether through changing the identity of service enterprises as tax increase taxpayers or breaking through the deduction chain of manufacturing industry.Finally,this paper studies the regional spillover effect of "replacing business tax with value-added tax" on enterprise investment structure.The existing literature on the spillover effect of "replacing business tax with value-added tax" on the manufacturing industry is mostly limited to the scope of the pilot,with the manufacturing industry in the pilot area as the experimental group and the manufacturing industry in other areas as the control group.The main basis is that the productive service industry has a following effect on the manufacturing industry,and the business objects of the service industry are mainly manufacturing enterprises in nearby areas.Therefore,the enterprises affected by the"replacing business tax with value-added tax" are mainly in the pilot areas.However,the assumption is too strict to limit the manufacturing affected by replacing business tax with vat to the pilot provinces and cities.In fact,"replacing business tax with value-added tax"promotes industrial division of labor and trans-regional operation among enterprises,and the policy effect will be transmitted to other non-pilot areas along with the deduction chain.Therefore,"replacing business tax with value-added tax" may have strong spillover effect on the adjustment of investment structure of manufacturing enterprises.This paper examines the regional spillover caused by "replacing business tax with value-added tax"from two dimensions.Firstly,based on the co-positioning theory of manufacturing and service industries in the region,this paper takes the geographical distance as the grouping basis.The empirical results show that manufacturing enterprises close to the pilot area are more affected by "replacing business tax with value-added tax" than those far away from the pilot area,and the investment structure has a stronger effect of "going from virtual to real",indicating that the radiation of the service industry to the manufacturing industry in the surrounding area gradually decreases with the geographical distance.Secondly,the processing group and the control group are distinguished according to the close connection between the intermediate input of manufacturing enterprises in different regions and the pilot region and the pilot industry.The empirical results show that among the enterprises in non-pilot areas,the closer the industry association with the "replacing business tax with value-added tax" in the pilot areas,the more obvious the effect of "removing the virtual and returning to the real" in the investment structure.Two empirical design results show that together "camp" to the enterprise investment structure adjustment has significant areas of surplus,after the results of assessment "camp to increase the policy effect the study has a deeper significance,means that future empirical design and economics to explain the results,after the change,we must give full consideration to the business tax paid vat,Due to the opening of the deduction chain and inter-regional operation,it also has policy influence on non-pilot areas.Further,this paper tests the impact of investment structure on the overall performance of enterprises after "de-virtual back to real".The results show that investment financialization can significantly inhibit enterprise growth degree,total factor productivity and other indicators measuring enterprise performance,while "replacing business tax with value-added tax" effectively improves enterprise performance by inhibiting the financialization level of enterprise investment.This result shows that "replacing business tax with value-added tax",as an important starting point of supply-side reform,can significantly improve the quality of supply and plays an important role in promoting highquality economic development.In methodology,this paper mainly adopts empirical analysis and normative analysis of phase structure.On theoretical analysis,this article by "camp to increase the income effect",adjust the effect,as well as the enterprise to make the financial investment,on the basis of the profit motive and reservoir motive analysis under different motivation to add "camp" may cause different effect of the adjustment of the enterprise investment behavior mode,build "camp" to the enterprise investment "to take off the real to virtual" theory is the matrix,the influence of It provides theoretical support for subsequent empirical model testing.On the empirical method,this paper mainly used assessment policy effect that is commonly used in double difference,triple difference measurement model,and assisted by other methods improve the reliability of the models,including the placebo test,parallel trend test,dynamic effect analysis,monte carlo analysis,tends to match score-double difference model and the mediation effect,etc.From the perspective of research and research methods,this paper has made a meaningful expansion of the evaluation of the effect of the policy of "replacing business tax with value-added tax",providing detailed micro-evidence for in-depth understanding of how tax reform guides enterprise investment behavior.The future reform of "replacing business tax with value-added tax" mainly focuses on the reform of tax rate.Tax rate of financial investment can be appropriately raised to cool down the increasingly hot financial investment.In addition,the impact of tax reform on investment behavior of different enterprises is different,so guidance and adjustment should be made according to the details of specific tax reform and the relevant characteristics of enterprises.We should not only actively guide the optimization of the investment structure of capital-intensive enterprises with tight financing constraints and high degree of competition,but also coordinate the investment behavior of labor-intensive enterprises with relatively loose financing constraints and low degree of competition,so as to realize the healthy and high-quality development of national economy. |
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