| Since entering the 21 st century,the continuous rise of emerging economies represented by China and India has accelerated the shift from the Euro-Atlantic region to the Asia-Pacific region,which has also made the ASEAN region an important meeting area for the geostrategy and geopolitical interests of the world’s major powers,where the US "Indo-Pacific" strategy,the "quadrilateral mechanism" of the United States,Japan,India and Australia and India’s "eastward" strategy all converge.A large number of facts show that the strategic involvement of the United States,Japan and India has had a direct and indirect impact on the situation in Southeast Asia and the geopolitical cooperation between China and ASEAN.In addition,ASEAN member states also suffer to varying degrees such as political turmoil,prominent ethnic and religious contradictions,frequent armed conflicts,serious corruption problems,and large differences in economic development.Affected by this,geo-economic cooperation between China and ASEAN countries will inevitably face many geo-risks and challenges.According to the Global Risks Report released by the World Economic Forum in recent years,geopolitical and geo-economic risks are becoming the driving forces affecting global macroeconomic and international market fluctuations.The ASEAN region is an important region for China’s external circulation in implementing the "Belt and Road" and "dual circulation" economic development measures,and is the main carrier of China’s foreign trade and investment.In view of this,this paper takes the ASEAN region,the world’s major power convergence area,as the research object,comprehensively uses the theories and methods of geography,economics,international relations and other disciplines,focuses on the in-depth study of the spatiotemporal situation of the impact of China-ASEAN geo-risk on geo-economy,takes the theoretical research of geo-risk on geo-economic impact as the starting point,quantitatively evaluates the geo-risk of China-ASEAN,measures the strength of China-ASEAN geo-economic linkage,and then takes this as the background.The spatiotemporal geographically weighted regression(GTWR)model was used to empirically analyze the temporal and spatial evolution of the geo-economic impact of China-ASEAN on China-ASEAN,and analyze the mechanism of impact.The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:(1)China-ASEAN Geo-Risk Assessment Timeliness Spatial Bureau Research.By constructing a multi-scale and multi-dimensional geo-risk assessment index model,the China-ASEAN geo-risk is evaluated,and the temporal and spatial evolution of geo-risk at various scales and dimensions is explored.The results show that:(1)On the whole,the geo-risk of China-ASEAN is high,but it shows a small fluctuation downward trend,and the spatial pattern is relatively stable.(2)The international geo-environmental risks of ASEAN countries fluctuate and increase in time,and the spatial pattern changes are more obvious.(3)The bilateral relations between China and ASEAN countries have gone through three stages: "stable development,frequent conflicts,and easing development",and the spatial pattern has changed little.(4)The comprehensive risk within ASEAN countries is generally declining in time,but the comprehensive risk within each country is more obvious,and the spatial pattern is relatively stable.(2)Research on China-ASEAN Geoeconomic Measurement and Timeliness Bureau.A multi-scale and multi-dimensional geo-economic measurement index model was constructed,the strength of China-ASEAN geo-economic ties was measured,and the temporal and spatial evolution of local economies and their factors was explored.The results show that:(1)The intensity of geo-economic ties and trade ties between China and ASEAN countries is generally increasing rapidly,and the spatial pattern of geo-economic ties has changed from "Singapore single core" to "Singapore,Vietnam and Malaysia multi-core";The spatial pattern of trade links has changed from "Singapore + Malaysia" as the core to "Vietnam + Malaysia" as the core.(2)Investment linkages show a trend of rapid enhancement,and the spatial pattern is manifested as "Singapore single core" status.(3)Tourism links show a trend of first strengthening and then sharply weakening,and the spatial pattern has shifted from a "single core in Singapore" to a "dual core in Vietnam and Myanmar".and the spatial pattern has not changed much.(4)The overall transportation connection shows a relatively stable trend,and gradually forms a "dual-core spatial pattern of Vietnam +Thailand".(3)Spatiotemporal and spatial research on the impact of China-ASEAN geo-risk on geo-economy.The spatiotemporal geographically weighted regression(GTWR)model was used to estimate the direction and degree of impact of comprehensive geo-risk on geo-economy,trade and investment,as well as the direction and degree of influence of international geo-environmental risks,bilateral relations and domestic risks on geo-economy.The results show that geopolitical risk has a restraining effect on geo-economy,which is manifested as follows:(1)comprehensive geopolitical risk has a negative impact on geo-economy,and the overall trend is increasing,and the spatial pattern of influence changes greatly.(2)Comprehensive geo-risk have a negative impact on trade,and show a process of "first increase-then decrease-then increase",and the influence space changes significantly.(3)The comprehensive geo-risk mainly has a negative impact on investment,and the overall impact is a trend of increasing volatility,and the spatial pattern is generally stable.(4)The international geopolitical environmental risks have a negative impact on the geo-economy,and are manifested as the change process of "first decreasing-then increasing",and the spatial pattern changes are obvious.(5)The risks of bilateral relations mainly have a negative impact on the geo-economy,showing an evolution process of "first increase-then decrease-then increase",and the spatial pattern changes are small.(6)The internal risks of ASEAN countries mainly have a negative impact on the geo-economy,which is generally manifested as an increasing trend of fluctuation and obvious changes in spatial pattern.(4)Research on the mechanism of the impact of China-ASEAN geo-risks on geo-economy.Based on the theoretical analysis of the impact of geopolitical risk on geo-economy and the empirical analysis of China-ASEAN geo-risk,the results show that the impact of China-ASEAN geo-risk on geo-economy is mainly affected by the lack of geopolitical mutual trust,the evolution of geo-economic coopetition relations,geo-social and cultural conflicts,the fragmentation and complexity of the political environment of ASEAN countries,the downturn of the economic environment of ASEAN countries,the intensification of social contradictions in ASEAN countries,the competition of geopolitical interests of major countries outside the region in the ASEAN region,and the implementation of the strategy of "great power balance diplomacy" in ASEAN countries.The complex and changeable international and regional political and economic situation is influenced by other factors.The impact mechanism of geo-risk on geo-economy has both a single direct impact and a comprehensive impact of two or even more aspects,which is a dynamic and complex process. |
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