| From the comprehensive perspectives of economic and trade,history and culture,transportation and globalization,this paper systematically establishes the geographical range of "the Belt and Road" in three spatial scales:the start-up zone,the standard zone and the expansion zone.In terms of the innovation of theory and methodology,this paper puts forward methods of land-sea transport spatial equilibrium,provincial container volume analysis and container coefficient.All these three methods provide a multi-angle technical method for analyzing the spatial equilibrium of land-sea transportation,which based on the transportation perspective.By picturing the graph of Eurasia and building serial mathematical formula,this paper deduces the ideal model of land-sea transport spatial equilibrium in Eurasia.Furthermore,in this paper,the multi-element and multi-scenario scenario simulation of land-sea transport space balance is carried out.On this basis,the theory of land-sea transport space balance is proposed.Diversity preferences,economies of scale,and transportation costs are the three pillars of space economics(new economic geography)created by Krugman.Based on the land-sea space equilibrium model proposed by transportation cost,this paper expands and deepens the existing analysis field of spatial economics from the macroscopic scale,which has important theoretical innovation significance.In terms of application,the spatial co-opetition pattern of land and sea transportation in China is divided by using the analytical methods and theoretical models presented above.Based on the shortest path method,this paper puts forward some reasonable Suggestions on the optimization of container cargo flow space and the optimal layout of cargo source gathering place in China.On this basis,the spatial balance line of land and sea transportation is further divided on the macro scale of Eurasia.Based on the theory of land rights and marginal zone,the geo-economic and geopolitical spatial coupling of Eurasia is carried out.The comprehensive integrated analysis divides Eurasia into three functional zones:inland zone(land transport zone),marine zone(marine zone)and land-sea complex zone.China and the EU are both typical land-sea complex zones.This paper scientifically answers the intrinsic motivation problem(perticularty,which is a Chinese perspective)and the theoretical scientific problem(universal,scientific)based on the Chinese perspective from the perspective of theory and evidence.This paper objectively analyses the rationality and inevitability of these countries and regions,such as Russia,the European Union,India and even the United States,to put forward corresponding strategies based on their own interests.From the perspective of spatial coopetition,a scientific basis for China’s inclusive implementation of "the Belt and Road" is provided.The detail is as follows:"the Belt and Road" is a leading strategic thinking and initiative for our country to open to the outside world for a long time.Under this background,domestic and foreign academic circles have done a lot of research from various aspects such as economy,society,history and culture.These studies have played an important role in the deepening of the connotation of the "the Belt and Road",but there is a slight disparity in the research horizon.This paper argues that the reason why the new era globalization thought based on the Chinese perspective is summarized as "the Belt and Road" is,of course,the historical inheritance.But more importantly,it emphasizes the basic role of interconnection in further promoting globalization.This is the traffic characteristics of the "the Belt and Road".Furthermore,"Belt" and"Road" is not independent,but interrelated and even competitive,that is,it should be a cooperative relationship based on competition,which is the systematic feature of"the Belt and Road".So,what is the space competition of the "the Belt and Road"?What kind of analytical model is constructed to express this spatial competingness?How does this spatial co-occurrence affect the spatial pattern?This is obviously a major fundamental theoretical issue that needs to be resolved in the "the Belt and Road".There is still no unified statement about the geographical range of the "the Belt and Road".Some people have determined the geographical range of the "the Belt and Road" based on the historical "Silk Road" path.Some people have determined the geographical range of the "the Belt and Road" based on trade links with China,and others determined the geographical range of the "the Belt and Road" based on the degree of response of other countries to the "the Belt and Road".Based on the coupling perspective of transportation and globalization,this paper believes that 65 countries based on the trade and response perspective can be used as the starting area of the "the Belt and Road";The entire Eurasia,which reflects the spatial coupling relationship between "Belt" and "Road",is the "the Belt and Road" standard area;Other regions,including Africa and the Americas,are expansion zones of the "the Belt and Road".These three can constitute a three-level regional structure of globalization in China.Thus,it is the logical starting point of this thesis to analyze the spatial Coopetition relationship of "One Belt,One Road" which based on the transport cost perspective.Since the implementation of "the Belt and Road",about 40 Chinese cities have opened China-Europe trains.Based on the published transportation cost data of these cities,combined with the open shipping cost data,this paper constructs an analysis model based on the "Belt" of railway land transportation and the "Road"transportation cost based on shipping.In.terms of parameter setting,the cost of land and sea transportation is about 4:1(i.e.about US$0.6/km and US$0.15/km respectively),but the land transportation time is much shorter than shipping,which is about 1:3(ie,respectively It is 15 days and 45 days or so).In China’s analysis section,the target point is Berlin,Germany,and the transshipment port is Rotterdam,the European portal.The reason is that the EU is one of the three largest economies in the world,while Germany is the core country of the EU economy.China’s land-sea transshipment ports are Dalian,Tianjin,Qingdao,Lianyungang,Shanghai,Xiamen and Guangzhou,seven coastal port cities(the main container transport ports between China and Europe),and the land ports are Alashan Pass,Erlianhot and Manzhouli(the three mainland ports of China’s railway transport).The analysis shows that,regardless of the time cost(determined by the value of the container),the land-sea transportation balance line of China International Containers to Europe generally passes through the Alxa League in western Inner Mongolia-Jiuquan City,Gansu Province-Haixi Prefecture,Qinghai Province-Tibet Shigatse City,including all of Xinjiang,as well as parts of Ningxia,Gansu,Qinghai and Tibet.That is to say,in addition to the freight cost advantage of the northwestern region passing through the China-Europe railway from the Alashankou port to Europe,the cost of seaborne transportation in other regions is much smaller than that of onshore rail transport.Considering the time cost,as the value of the container continues to increase,the equilibrium curve of land and sea transportation continues to advance to the southeast coast.Among them,the container value line of 5 million yuan is basically consistent with the Hu Huanyong line.On this basis,this paper further divides the spatial pattern division of China’s land and sea transportation competition,which is divided into China’s domestic railway transportation advantage area and marine transportation advantage area.The dominant area of land railway transportation is divided into Alashan port dominant area,Manzhouli port dominant area and Erlianhot port dominant area.The dominant area of sea transportation is divided info two regions and six areas,namely,the dominant area of Bohai Rim Port Group,the dominant area of Yangtze River Delta Port Group and the dominant area of Pearl River Delta Port Group.Further,the overseas land freight rate is reduced from US$0.6/(FEU·km)to US$0.45/(FEU·km)(ie,the direct transportation cost of land and sea transport is reduced from the current 4:1 to 3:1).A new land-sea transport spatial equilibrium line has been formed in the eastern region with Nantong-Nanjing-Chizhou as the boundary and Nanchang-Yueyang-Guiyang-Kunming-Puer as the boundary in the southwest region.The northwest region of the boundary is the dominant area of land transport,while the southeast region is the dominant area of sea transport,thus forming "two regions and five areas".The advantages of sea transport around Bohai Sea have been completely replaced by land transport.Therefore,based on the comparison of land and sea transport costs,China can be divided into three regional types:land transport area,maritime transport area and land and sea transition area.To expand the research perspective from China to Eurasia,Europe’s gateway is Berlin and China’s gateway is Beijing and Tianjin.On this basis,the trend of the land-sea equilibrium line of Eurasia is:Russia’s near Baltic region-Kazakhstan’s Caspian Sea coast-Turkmenistan-Tajikistan-Northwest China-MongoliaRussia’s Eastern Siberian mountain region.The Eurasia continent is divided into a central hinterland land transport zone and an outer ring sea transport zone,and the coverage of the two forms a space competition qualified office with a ratio of 1:2.This land-sea spatial equilibrium line based on the perspective of land-sea transportation cost is spatially coupled with the existing geopolitical McKinder’s land rights theory and Spekeman’s marginal theory.It can be deeper and more stereoscopic to reveal the essence of the functional division of Eurasia.Accordingly,this paper divides Eurasia into three functional types:inland area(land transport dominant area),ocean area(sea transport dominant area)and land-sea complex area(land-sea transport relatively balanced area).This conclusion provides a theoretical basis for"the Belt and Road" from the perspective of geo-economic and geopolitical coupling.The previous analysis belongs to the inductive analysis based on real data.If the Eurasian continent is assumed to be a circle,then the space-competitive relationship between "Belt" and "Road" can be further abstracted based on the perspective of transportation cost,that is,it can be carried out and deduced.On the basis of constructing a series of "Belt" and "Road" analysis models,this paper determines the ideal model of land-sea space balance in Eurasia,which can divide Eurasia into two categories:land transportation area and shipping area.It can be further divided into three parts:land transportation area,land sea compound area and shipping area,with their respective area proportions being 45.27%,31.84%and 22.89%respectively.The above-mentioned economic divisions are more generalized and can be named as inland areas and coastal areas,or inland areas,land-sea complex types and marine areas.This division can already correspond to the geopolitical pattern.Furthermore,the balance of land and sea space is affected by factors such as spatial location,direct transportation costs,and indirect transportation costs.When these influencing factors change,the land-sea transport equilibrium line will also change accordingly.Therefore,this paper also carries out dynamic simulation of multiple scenarios.The establishment of the above analysis ideas,the construction of the analysis framework,the construction of the analysis model,and the conclusion of the ideal model of the Eurasian land and sea transport spatial equilibrium on this basis,as well as the dynamic simulation of multiple factors and scenarios,we call it the Eurasian land and sea transport spatial equilibrium theory,referred to as the land and sea spatial equilibrium theory.This is the most important academic innovation of this paper,because it supports the proposal and implementation of "the Belt and Road" from the perspective of basic theory.Based on the theory of land-sea space balance,it is clear that different countries have different interests in different positions in Eurasia,as well as economic development stages and even cultural backgrounds.Specifically,the United States,India,the European Union,and even the United States outside the United States are involved.To this end,this paper initially analyzes the relevant strategies proposed by these countries and regions,and analyzes the reasons why these countries and regions propose these strategies based on their own interests and interests.On this basis,the similarities and differences of different strategies put forward by China and these countries are found and established.In the principle of seeking common ground while reserving differences,we try to deepen the connotation of the Chinese version of the"the Belt and Road",thus providing a scientific basis for the implementation of the"the Belt and Road" principle of inclusiveness.On the other hand,because the land-sea transportation equilibrium line is closely related to the cost change of land transportation,how to optimize the domestic railway layout under the existing railway infrastructure conditions has become a major demand that is urgently needed.Therefore,based on the construction of the provincial container quantity estimation model and the container box source generation coefficient method,this paper uses the shortest path analysis method to clarify the spatial pattern of China-Europe container transport flow in China,and transports to the east,middle and west.Channel and traffic distribution are discussed more comprehensively.On this basis,a three-level convergence scheme for container tank sources is proposed.Among them,the first-level convergence points include Qiqihar in the eastern channel,Wulanchabu in the central channel,Beijing,Jinan and Nanjing,and Urumqi,Zhongwei and Xi’an in the western channel.Finally,this program is compared with the program announced by the Ministry of Railways,which provides a scientific basis for possible further optimization in the future. |
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