| At the beginning of 2022,by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict triggered by the international crude oil price volatility swept the world again,coupled with the impact of the epidemic,the global economic recovery is weak,which fundamentally determines the current economy will still have a high probability of plunging into the entity of the economic crisis,it is worth this paper to be paid full attention to.At the same time,the rise and fall of crude oil prices change rapidly,in 2022,the explosive rise in crude oil prices has plunged many economies around the world into a serious inflation quagmire,and even signs of falling into the stagflation predicament again.China’s inflation also appeared structural price positive “scissors”;in contrast,in 2023,with the international crude oil prices gradually return to the rational level,China’s inflation also showed a structural price reverse “scissors”,and the CPI and PPI index both showed significant decline.Intuitively,the ups and downs of inflation are closely related to the movements of international crude oil prices,while China’s inflation is very different from that of many typical economies around the world,often in the form of structural inflation.Then what kind of oil price shock channels could stimulate the inflation? Why is China’s inflation characterized by structural rather than global changes? Is structural inflation harmful for economy? What should be done to cope with and governance it?This paper examines this series of issues,and the specific contents and conclusions are as follows:First of all,this paper combs through the relevant theories in the two fields of international crude oil price shocks and imported inflation,and conducts a literature review of the relevant studies,and describes the stylized facts of oil price shocks and inflation by constructing a time-varying Granger causality test model.The results of the study show that: firstly,all the typical inflation or contraction in China is characterized by imported;secondly,when smooth transmission can be formed between price indices,the central bank is able to achieve effective inflation governance,whether it is catching CPI or PPI indices.However,when faced with structural inflation,catching CPI will face the dilemma of regulatory failure;third,the classical theory of the formation mechanism and impact mechanism of oil price shocks suggests that oil price shocks channels can originate from oil supply,oil demand and oil inventory demand.Stylized facts also show that in recent years,the influence of the group behavior of important global economies on oil price can no longer be ignored,which means that global economic activities are also likely to be an important channel to cause international oil price fluctuations.Secondly,combining the findings from the stylized facts of oil price shocks and inflation,this paper introduces the global economic activity channel into the classical “ternary decomposition”,and constructs a “quaternary decomposition” framework that is more suitable for describing the transmission mechanism of oil price shocks.Based on this theory,the S-VAR model with incomplete identification of Bayesian estimation is used to systematically measure the impacts of four different channels of oil price shocks on oil production,oil inventories,global economic activity and oil price.The results of the study show that,firstly,compared with the traditional “ternary decomposition”theory,the “quadratic decomposition” theory is more accurate in portraying oil price fluctuations,and the impact of global economic activities on oil price shocks can no longer be ignored.Secondly,the impulse response results of incompletly identified Bayesian estimation S-VAR model show that when the assumption of constant supply elasticity is released,the supply shock is the strongest and longest impact on oil price,and it is the primary factor leading to the oil price fluctuations;thirdly,the dominant channels of oil price fluctuations are not the same in different periods,therefore it is necessary to decompose the channels of oil price shocks and further analyze the impacts of different economic activities on crude oil prices.Therefore,it is necessary to conduct channel decomposition of oil price shocks to further analyze the collinearity between each channel shock and imported inflation in different periods.Thirdly,based on the channel decomposition results of oil price shocks,this paper identifies the exogenous causes of typical imported inflation in China.Furthermore,a skewed at-risk distribution model is used to measure the conditional distribution of inflation under all the typical inflation periods in China,so as to comprehensively explain the impact of oil price shocks on the distribution of inflation in China.The results of the study show that: first,for both CPI and PPI,when oil price shocks impact on China’s inflation through the channel of global economic activities,it can cause significant variations in the shape of the inflation at-risk distribution;second,for both CPI and PPI,the introduction of oil price shocks as a condition can play a certain “corrective” role in the self-distribution of inflation.Third,for both CPI and PPI,the shock elements that shape imported inflation at different periods are not the same,and a unit of the same oil price shock can generate a significant change in the distribution of different inflations at risk,which may eventually lead to the formation of price “scissors”.Forthly,this paper through the construction of a hybrid Phillips curve,explains the formation of imported inflation mechanism from the perspective of oil price shocks,and oil price shocks on prices “scissors” under different supply chain pressures levels.The results of the study show that:firstly,from the viewpoint of the impact of oil price shocks on CPI and PPI,the global economic activity shock have become the main channels for the formation of price “scissors”;secondly,there are significant differences in the intensity of the response of consumer-and production-side inflation to the international crude oil price shocks,and the response to the global economic activity shock,which further causes the differentiation of CPI and PPI.CPI and PPI differentiation,especially at the high level of positive price "scissors",global economic activity shocks every 1% rise,price "scissors" will continue to expand 0.4955;Third,under high supply chain pressure level,the impact of global economic activity shock on the price "scissors" will be amplified,and it is difficult to converge in the long term,eventually forming structural inflation.Finally,this paper provides a basic typology of imported inflation,discusses in detail how to optimize the goverance of different types of imported inflation,and finally conducts a counterfactual simulation of the effects of the revised inflation goverance policy using a rolling iteration approach.The results of the study show that: first,in terms of the basic typology of imported inflation,it can be divided into two categories: global inflation and structural inflation;second,in terms of the evolutionary characteristics of China’s successive inflationary episodes,prior to 2012,inflation occurred in a global form,including three times of global inflation and one time of global deflation,whereas after 2012,global inflation rarely occurred,and the contradictions on the inflation were presented as structural problems.Third,in terms of optimizing the governance of structural inflation,a basic principle is to focus on the long-term problems that trigger structural inflation,and for the structural inflation that has reversed many times after 2020,the core crux of the problem is still the lack of demand on the consumption,so the governance of this complex structural inflation should be returned to focusing on the CPI,and at the same time,considering the complexity of the inflation dynamics,it is the most expedient choice to adopt a weak CPI catching to cope with structural inflation after 2020. |
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