Predictors of success in meeting the high school mathematics and English requirements for college entrance: A longitudinal study

This was an exploratory, prospective study of the academic progress of the freshman class of 1998-1999, utilizing the Los Angeles Longitudinal Student Database (LSDB). The original sample was defined as all eighth grade graduates who were to enter the ninth grade in fall 1998 in four inner city high schools. For purposes of this study, academic progress focused only on the English and mathematics proficiency requirements for college entrance eligibility (B & C of the A to G requirements). In the aggregate, the four high schools were representative of 12 inner city high schools within one district. The study was prospective in that the students were tracked over a period of five years (Grades 8 through 12). However, backward mapping techniques were used in order to determine the differential characteristics of selected performance groups and to identify the most influential variables associated with academic outcome performance differences. The major disaggregated groups for most of the analyses were: gender; ethnic group membership; and English language proficiency classification. The academic outcome variables analyzed included English and mathematics course grades, and related competency examinations, considered critical to college eligibility. Within this general framework, an attempt was made to determine the predictive importance of such variables as: patterns of days present for instruction; timing of course enrollment; in or out of taking courses; standardized test performance; and overall "engagement" in the learning process. Results showed that non-attendance and failure to successfully complete early foundation courses in the eighth and ninth grades were the two most influential variables. Comparatively, Latino students in the Redesignated as Fluent English Proficient (RFEP) group evidenced the greatest persistence, engagement and success, while the African American (AA) and Hispanic Limited English (LEP) groups evidenced the least. Using a more absolute criterion, the entire freshman cohort was academically at risk.