Analysis And Simulation Of Transmission Mechanism And Pathway Of Land Policy

Land is the material basis of the production and life of mankind and any industry has to depend on land. In China where industrialization and urbanization is growing at an amazing speed, the conflict between man and land gets increasingly intense, which has led to a band of problems. For example, the shrinking farm land has become threat to the national food security; local governments misuse land and supply low cost land for the sake of introducing investment. Consequently, it gives rise to the over-hot investment in some industries, over-capacity in production and the livelihood-concerning issue of soaring property price. With an eye to adapt macro-economic behavior and to use land in a sustainable way, land policy has been involved in macro-control since 2003 and it has now become the third macro-control means following monetary policy and financial policy. Premier Wen Jiabao pointed out over and again, "The key to macro-control is the management of land and credit. Both are substantial."However, improved transmission mechanism and unblocked pathway of land policy is fundamental to the administration of land and full play of macro-control. However, no consensus has been made among the academic world and governments about how to design an effective transmission mechanism of land policy, how to make joint efforts in integrating and coordinating land, industry and monetary policy. With the nation's launching of a new round of land macro-control and the complicated economic background, these issues call for immediate research and they become the focus of the dissertation.Concentrated on the transmission of land policy and with the guidance of land economics, the theory of co-integration and system and an analysis of the scientific land macro-control, the dissertation first formulates the frame and theoretical assumption of the transmission mechanism in land policy; and next, with the help of principal-agent theory in information economics, the dissertation puts forward the linear accountability system against the government's defaulting when game is played in land policy and investigates into the coordination of land and other policies from the point view of the cooperative game between TU and NTU. Finally, based on the theory of system dynamics and the calculation method of related digital matrix feedback loop proposed in the dissertation, the pathway of land policy transmission and the complicated feedback is analyzed and then with resort to the modeling technique of the theory of system dynamics, the land policy transmission system and pathway is simulated whose sensitivity is analyzed to figure out control schemes and subsequently related suggestion is made.The major findings are listed as below:Firstly, experiments demonstrate that it is scientific for land policy to get involved in macro-control and the effect of the change in farmland and food system on the farmland conservation is analyzed with the application of flexibility analysis in co-integration theory and retardation of impact function.The findings indicate that it is urgent for land to participate in the macro-control of land conservation, investment and property price; that the effect of land protection on the nation's food security is long-term but may delay from time to time; that land conservation is significantly influenced by industrial structure, agricultural production cost and the scope of fixed asset investment; that integrated development of land is beneficial to replenish arable land.Secondly, a conception model of the policy transmission mechanism is established; a corresponding frame is designed.It is discovered the spatial transmission pathway of land policy based on the distribution of subjects and objects as well as the temporal transmission pathway of land policy based on the movement of conductors. The dissertation goes further to point out that single land policy will probably lead to three problems. Land will meet its growth top limit; its remedy may be worse than the evil and the shadow may be grasped while the substance may be let go. To combat this, two assumptions are proposed.Thirdly, the dissertation proposed linear accountability system against the local government's default in policy control with the theory of non-and cooperative game, and analyzes the coordination of the macro-control of land with TU and NTU.As to the spatial transmission of land policy, difficulty in execution and the local government's reluctant response to macro-control policy contribute to the local government's default in the enforcement of land policy as part of macro-control and the game between the local and central government. When analyzing the principal-agent relation between the central and local government in the process of land policy transmission, the variable of mobile default compensation is introduced to partially modify the simplified Holmstrom & Milgrom Model. In this way, a linear accountability system is established as evaluation criteria to local governments' performance in the implementation of land policy. In addition, the coordination among land, credit and industry is new subject in the new era. According to whether the macro-control profit is arbitrarily mobile, coordination in different macro-control policies can be regarded respectively as TU and NTU cooperative game. By differentiating macro-control policy and its effectiveness and analyzing the distribution of macro-control profit, a simple method is defined in calculating the manipulating force of each in the combination of a wide range of policies with land included.Fourthly, the calculation method of related digital matrix feedback loop and base module is raised and applied to the analysis of complicated feedback in the transmission pathway of land policy.The ordinary variables, level variables, the cause-and-effect chain and polarity in the causality graph are described by the matrix. Thus, a related digital matrix is built with one-to-one correspondence to the graph. With the application of gradual reduction and sparse matrix optimization computation, a feedback loop matrix is obtained containing all of the feedback loops and their characteristics in the graph. And then with the combination of simple mathematical definition in three commonly used base models and the feedback loop matrix, a hidden systematical base model is achieved from the causality graph. With the approach discussed above and the analysis of the causality graph of the transmission system of land policy and categorizing the regulatory factors and level variables, the research is very fruitful in the complicated feedback of the sub-system controlled by land policy.Fifthly, a SD simulation model is built for the transmission system of land policy in Jiangxi Province. The effective use of the system dynamics method of single factor analysis of the sensitivity of the model, the sensitivity of policy control solutions, and on this basis that meet An Overall Plan for the Land Utility in Jiangxi Province (2006-2020) to require policy control programs.Based on the research mentioned above, four policy regulatory factors are selected and the modeling technique of rate variable fundamental in-tree model in system dynamics is used to create 8 rate variable fundamental in-tree model before a flow graph is drawn of the land policy transmission system in Jiangxi Province and corresponding simulation equations are built. In the process of simulation, the sensitivity of the system behavior is tested and the sensitivity of each policy factor is analyzed as well. Thus, the role of each policy in the system is defined. Next, the standard of policy control is put forward according to the demands in An Overall Plan for the Land Utility in Jiangxi Province (2006-2020).In accordance with the standard, policy factors regulate the recursive scheme in the order of sensitivity as a result of witch a set of effective plans that satisfy the intended goals are obtained. The simulation result of the controlled effective schemes will meet the demand of the overall plan of land utility and economic development in Jiangxi Province in the coming decade.To sum up, in the dissertation, a thorough research is made into the transmission mechanism and pathway of land policy; the operation conflicts are found out in land control and solution is figured out; the trend of land policy transmission is imitated and the effect of land control is predicted and it goes well with the current economic situations and meets the demand of macro-control. Therefore, the dissertation is significantly valuable both in theory and practice and it also displays the amazing vitality and broad application prospect of system dynamics approach in policy simulation.