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Cognitive Control Model Based On Decision Error And Its Application

Posted on:2007-12-30Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:W ZhouFull Text:PDF
GTID:1118360242961732Subject:Control theory and control engineering
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
For many decades, research in judgment and decision making has examined judgment violations of rational choice theory and expected utility theory. In these frameworks, rationality is expressed as a single correct decision shared by experimenters and subjects that satisfy internal coherence within a set of preferences and beliefs. More and more research has proved that expected utility theory can not be worked in many problems. Outside of psychology, social scientists are now debating the need to modify rational choice theory with behavioral assumptions. Within psychology, researchers are debating assumptions about errors for many different definitions of rationality. Alternative frameworks are being proposed. These frameworks view decisions and judgments as more reasonable and adaptive than previously thought. Such as prospect theory, which employs cumulative rather than separable decision weights and extends the theory in several respects.It also allows nonlinear preference which can be applied to various fields and provide viable solutions to extremely complex problems.This dissertation presents recent research on judgment and decision making errors from traditional and alternative frameworks, analyzes the errors that exist in the judgment and decision making. We also provide a common cognitive control model for judgments. However, most of the decision and judgment theories are based on expected utilities, when encounters the situations that do not meet the requirements of the expected utility theory, most of them will not be worked. The Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) method is one of them, which was proposed by American mathematician, Thomas L. Saaty. The reverse problem that exits in AHP has been discussed for over 20 years, almost all the discussion of the PR problems were based on mathematics. In this dissertation, we discussed the error control from the view of cognitive theory, and gave a model to solve the PR problem that exists in the AHP. The frameworks provided in this dissertation will help decision maker to solve these kinds of problems.This dissertation adopts the methods of quantitative and qualitative analysis, taking AHP as the quantitative method to analyze the PR problems for the first time. We also discussed the errors that exist in the rational decision theory. Combined with expected theory and descriptive decision theory, we construct a relatively stable control pattern. Finally, under the framework of AHP, we create the concept of order equivalent class and binary tree control model to ensure the method execute more accurately.Under the framework that provided above, I developed a software SMART CHOICE. SMART CHOICE makes possible the synthesis of input from multiple stakeholders and provides the necessary capability to analyze, prioritize and communicate those decisions. Based on order control strategy, cognitive control model and the design idea of decision environment, SMART CHOICE provides a mathematically rigorous application and proven process for prioritization and decision-making. It not only helps decision-makers arrive at the best decision quickly and accurately, but also provides a clear rationale for the decision.
Keywords/Search Tags:Judgment Error, Prospect Theory, Analytical Hierarchy Process, Error Control Model, Decision Support System
PDF Full Text Request
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