Spatial-temporal Distribution And Social Impact Of Epidemic Disasters In The Middle And Upper Reaches Of The Yellow River Basin In Qing Dynasty

As the top disaster in the disaster chain network,epidemic disaster has a profound impact on human civilization.In addition,AIDS,monkeypox and other infectious diseases are still obstacles to the sustainable development of human civilization today,when medical and health conditions have been significantly improved.Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution,chain network characteristics and social impact of epidemic disasters in the historical period can provide reference for the prevention and control of infectious diseases today.In this paper,eight provinces in the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin in the Qing Dynasty were taken as case studies of historical epidemics.From the perspective of time,the Qing Dynasty was in a special climatic period called "Little Ice Age in the Ming and Qing Dynasties",with significant changes in the natural environment and great changes in the political,social and economic environment.From the perspective of space,the ecological environment of the eight provinces through which the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin are easily disturbed by natural environment and human activities,and the response is deep and fast.In terms of research methods and contents,this paper uses the knowledge meta-model to decompose and collate epidemic disaster records in historical data such as the Compilation of Epidemic Disaster Records for 3,000 Years in China.Secondly,with the help of software such as Matlab,Origin and R,Using polynomial curve fitting,wavelet analysis,combined with 268 years of epidemic sequence,epidemic seasonal rate,epidemic number of counties,epidemic frequency,epidemic grade and other concepts,the time characteristics of epidemics in the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin in the Qing Dynasty were analyzed.Arc GIS,R and other software were used to analyze the spatial characteristics of epidemics in the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin by using centroid coordinate solving model,spatial autocorrelation analysis and other methods,combined with the concepts of epidemic years,epidemic breadth,epidemic thickness and epidemic density.The complex network analysis method was used to analyze the characteristics and rules of epidemic disaster chain network,and finally the social impact of epidemic disaster was discussed by summarizing historical literature.The main research conclusions are as follows:Firstly,except the Yongzheng Dynasty,the epidemic frequency in the middle and upper reaches of the Qing Dynasty showed a stepwise rising trend,and by the middle and late Qing Dynasty,the epidemic frequency was almost once a year;In terms of epidemic disaster level,in the early Qing Dynasty,the epidemics were mainly micro epidemics and minor epidemics,while in the later period,they were mainly moderate epidemics,major epidemics and major epidemics.The high incidence of summer and autumn epidemics is related to the pathogenic characteristics of cholera,malaria and other epidemics.But in the late Qing Dynasty,the epidemic season was not significant and showed diversity.In terms of trends,the frequency,extent and severity of epidemics in the Qing Dynasty were on the rise,with a slow rise from 1644 to 1694,a slow decline from 1695 to 1780,a rapid rise from 1781 to 1890,and a slight decline from1891 to 1911.In the Qing Dynasty,the occurrence cycle of epidemic breadth and intensity in the upper and middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin was about 68 a,and there was a sub-cycle of 128 a,and the frequency of epidemic was about 122 a.Secondly,in the Qing Dynasty,Henan and Shanxi provinces had the second largest number of epidemic-stricken counties,and the number of epidemic-stricken years was longer;Qinghai Province had the lowest number of epidemic affected counties,and the number of epidemic affected years was shorter.This is closely related to the terrain and population.The average altitude has a profound impact on the number of population and density,and further affects the number of affected counties and the length of affected years.In the Qing Dynasty,the epidemic in the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin showed a positive spatial autocorrelation,which was deeply affected by the geographical space distance,but the degree of distribution and agglomeration of epidemic counties decreased and began to become loose in the middle and late Qing Dynasty.The hot spots were mainly distributed in Henan,Shanxi,Shaanxi and Gansu provinces,while the cold spots were mainly distributed in Inner Mongolia,Qinghai and Sichuan provinces.From the perspective of transition characteristics,the epidemic center of the Qing Dynasty was in Shaanxi Province,and showed a trend of westward expansion to the north,and the transition of epidemic pairs was deeply affected by human activities,population flow and natural disaster characteristics.Thirdly,from the perspective of the directed belt network,drought and hunger were the natural and socio-economic disaster factors that caused the most epidemics in the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin in the Qing Dynasty,respectively,and a large number of deaths were the main disaster environment and direct social impact of epidemics in the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin in the Qing Dynasty.From the perspective of directed power network,hunger,war,grain reduction and mass death are the most important nodes in the epidemic disaster network,and drought is the node with the largest number of disaster paths.The average shortest path of the whole disaster chain network is low,but it does not show the characteristics of "small world" network.Last but not least,after the outbreak of the epidemic,people made progress in understanding and coping with the epidemic,and some government officials and social groups actively participated in the practice of disaster relief and anti-epidemic.However,the epidemic has caused a large number of people to die and flee,panic of the masses,hunger and other negative impacts on the population.In terms of land,it has caused the phenomenon of land wasteland and no farming.In terms of economy,it has caused the shortage of government funds,the depression of commercial economy and the rise of food prices.In terms of communication,it is easy to cause road interruption and communication interruption.