Research On Early Judgment Model Of Urban Infectious Disease Epidemic Risk Based On Big Data

The history of human civilization is also a history of disease resistance.Since the beginning of the 21 st century,epidemics of infectious diseases have continued to emerge and caused widespread epidemics.Not only new infectious diseases have followed,but re-emerging infectious diseases have continued to make a comeback.Infectious disease outbreaks have the characteristics of long duration,wide spread,high degree of harm,and difficult prevention and control,which pose a serious threat to the stable economic development of various countries and the healthy life of people.Therefore,the early evaluation of urban infectious disease epidemic risk has also become an important research topic.At the same time,the rapid development of Internet technology and high-end devices has improved people’s lives and generated and accumulated a huge amount of data.Although these data come from different sources and in different forms,they have not been fully utilized in the risk assessment of urban infectious disease epidemics.The research content of the thesis is divided into five parts.The first part summarizes the research status of infectious disease epidemics,summarizes the guarantee and methods of infectious disease epidemic risk research,and analyzes the role of big data in infectious disease epidemic risk research and judgment.The second part expounds the relevant theoretical basis,mainly including the risk of infectious disease epidemics,risk big data,and the organizational system and process involved in risk research and judgment.risk assessment framework.The third part is based on the precursor information theory,studies the big data of urban infectious disease epidemic risk,deeply analyzes the data information in the stages of the occurrence and development of infectious disease epidemics,and classifies the multi-source data that can represent the risk of infectious disease epidemics.source channel.The fourth part constructs an early research and judgment model of urban infectious disease epidemic risk by using data fusion methods such as situational awareness,evidence theory and Bayesian network.Then,based on the risk profile method,a risk research and judgment function is constructed to conduct overall risk research and judgment,scientifically judge the risk status of urban infectious disease epidemics,and predict the evolution trend of events.The fifth part verifies the effectiveness and feasibility of multi-source big data fusion for infectious disease risk research and judgment by taking the Wuhan new crown pneumonia epidemic as a case.The case analysis of the paper shows that the risk profile using multi-source big data can provide an important reference for risk research and judgment in the early stage of infectious disease outbreaks.The innovation of the paper is to clarify the precursor information of urban infectious disease epidemic risk,mainly including medical big data,Internet big data,human behavior big data,geo-meteorological big data,and discusses the source and monitoring of these precursor information;comprehensive data It has improved the epidemic risk research and judgment process,and built a multi-stage urban infectious disease epidemic risk research and judgment model,including a situational awareness model involving experts,a data fusion model based on evidence theory,and a Bayesian network-based model.Predictive model and comprehensive risk profile judgment model.