Establishment And Verfication Of Risk Prediction Model Of IgA Nephropathy

Objective: To investigate prognostic factors in patients with IgAN,construct and verify the risk prediction model of IgAN progression to end-stage renal disease,and provide clinical decision-making tools for prognosis prediction of IgAN.Methods:Clinical,pathological and follow-up data of 459 patients diagnosed with IgAN after renal puncture pathological biopsy were collected from January 1,2010 to December 31,2021 in the Department of Nephrology,The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University.406 patients with definite outcome were included in the study.Independent predictors of IgAN were screened by univariate and multivariate COX regression analysis for training sets(284 cases)and validation sets(122 cases).ROC curves were drawn by different combinations to establish an optimal model(full model)and then a Nomogram was drawn.Finally,the validation set was used to verify the optimal model internally,and ROC curve and calibration curve were used to evaluate the predictive performance of the model.Results: 1.Serum uric acid,immunoinhibitors,creatinine,serum albumin,gross hematuria,glomerular capillary hyperplasia(E),stage sclerosis or adhesion(S),renal tubule atrophy or interstitial fibrosis(T),crescent body formation(C),and neutrophils were risk predictors of IgAN progression to ESRD.2.Establish a risk prediction model for IgAN and draw a Nomogram model,which has good predictive performance and can provide prognostic tools and therapeutic guidelines for IgAN patients and clinical workers.