The Research Of MRI Prediction Model On The Risk Of Relapse For RRMS Patients During The Treatment

Objective: Multiple sclerosis(MS)is an immune-mediated inflammatory demyelinating disease of the central nervous system,of which relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis(RRMS),the most common clinical type,has a high degree of individual variation in disability progression.It has been found that factors affecting relapse in patients with RRMS may be related to race,gender,age,disease duration,baseline EDSS score,number and volume of lesions,lesion load,and brain volume.However,there is still a lack of clinical prediction models for relapse in RRMS patients.In this study,we screened the influencing factors of recurrence in RRMS patients,constructed a clinical prediction model of recurrence in RRMS patients,and explored its predictive value.Methods: 51 patients with RRMS diagnosed clearly and treated with standardized DMT at the People’s Hospital of Xinjiang Autonomous Region from October 01,2020,to December 30,2022,were retrospectively analyzed,and relevant clinical data including age,gender,disease duration,baseline EDSS score,lesion counts(LC),normalized lesion volume(NLV),lesion burden(LB),and normalized brain volume(NBV).Using multivariate logistic regression,predictive models were constructed.To assess their identification,calibration,and clinical utility,c-index,calibration plots,and decision curve analysis were employed.For internal validation,a bootstrap algorithm was utilized.Results: The predictors included in the prediction model were age,sex,disease duration,baseline EDSS score,lesion counts(LC),normalized lesion volume(NLV),lesion burden(LB),and whether there was the loss of normalized brain volume(NBV).A C-index of 0.935(95% confidence interval)was achieved by the model,demonstrating a high degree of discrimination.0.93461-0.93841),which was well corrected.Conclusion:Patients with RRMS with high baseline EDSS scores,a high number of MRI lesions,a clinical prediction model of high accuracy,designed to aid clinicians in comprehending the risk of relapse within 1 year in RRMS patients treated with standardized DMT,was developed in this study.It was found that those with a high lesion load and brain volume loss were more likely to relapse,with statistically significant differences(p <0.05).Patients with RRMS at high risk of recurrence should be closely followed up and concerned to achieve early intervention.