Analysis Of Hospitalization Expenses And Prediction Of Number Of Hospitalizations For Children Aged 0 To 6 Years With Injuries Admitted To Hospital In Xinjiang

Objective: To analyze the socio-demographic characteristics,injury characteristics an d clinical characteristics of children aged 0 to 6 years old hospitalized with injuries in Xinj iang from 2010 to 2021,in order to understand the current situation of childhood injury pre valence in the region;to explore the influencing factors of hospitalization expenses,and to provide a theoretical reference basis for rational control of rapid growth of hospitalization expenses;a decision tree model is constructed to analyze the case mix of children hospitali zed for burn and scald and develop the corresponding standard expenses,providing a techn ical reference for the payment methods of DRGs for different injury types;an exponential smoothing model and SARIMA time series model are used to predict the number of childr en hospitalized for injuries from 0 to 6 years old,providing a methodological reference for the dynamic analysis and short-term prediction study of the number of injuries hospitalize d.Methods: Statistical description of the included children aged 0 to 6 years who were ho spitalized for injuries and analysis of changes in child injury characteristics;single-factor a nd multivariate stepwise linear regression analyses were conducted to analyze the direct,in direct and total effects of the influencing factors on the hospitalization expenses of the hos pitalized cases and to draw the path diagrams to derive the major,important and minor infl uencing factors on the hospitalization expenses;a decision tree model was constructed to a nalyze the case mix of children hospitalized with burn and scald;an exponential smoothing model and a SARIMA time series model were developed using SPSS 26.0 software and E VIEWS 6 software to verify the applicability of the model and to predict the number of ho spitalizations in 2022 and 2023.Results: 1.In the basic situation,the number of injuries to boys is higher than that of girls,with a male to female ratio of 1.58:1;the age is mainly 4 t o 6 years old,with 5395 cases(51.91%),and the proportion of rural children is higher,wit h 6734 cases(64.79%);the payment method is mainly paid by medical insurance,with 7629 cases(73.41%);the number of secondary hospitals is 5271 cases(50.72%),and the num ber of tertiary hospitals is 5122 cases(49.28%).The injury types are mainly traffic injuries and fall injuries,with 3204 cases(30.83%)and 3121 cases(30.03%),respectively;fractur es and internal organ injuries account for the top two injuries,with 2841 cases(27.34%)an d 2269 cases(21.83%),respectively;head and neck and extremities accounted for the large st number of injuries,with 3981 cases(38.30%)and 3026 cases(29.12%),respectively.Th e number of children hospitalized in summer is the highest,with 3260 cases(31.37%).Am ong the clinical characteristics,the main departments of admission for children are orthope dics in 2415 cases(23.24%),pediatrics in 1854 cases(17.84%),neurosurgery in 1566 case s(15.07%),9769 cases(94.00%)children do not have a transfer status,3524 cases(33.91%)children required surgical treatment during hospitalization,2738 cases(77.70%)child ren are surgically graded as secondary or tertiary,4884 cases(46.99%)has emergency adm ission status,and the number of days are mainly concentrated in 4-7 days in 3718 cases(35.77%).The differences in injury type,injury nature and injury site of children under differ ent gender,age and urban-rural distribution characteristics are statistically significant(P<0.05),the differences in injury nature and injury site of children under different injury types are statistically significant(P<0.001),the differences in injury type,injury nature and injur y site of children under different admission seasons are statistically significant(P<0.001),and statistically significant differences in injury type,injury nature,and injury site among children with different admission status,transfer and surgery(P<0.001).2.The average gr owth rate of hospitalization expenses during the twelve years is 3.36%,and the average gr owth rate of hospitalization days is-3.75%.Multiple stepwise linear regression analysis sh owed that the factors influencing hospitalization expenses mainly included age,urban-rura l distribution,hospital grade,payment method,admission year,injury type,injury site,hos pitalization days,whether to transfer,whether to operate,operation classification,and adm ission status,the results of the pass-through analysis showed that the number of days in ho spital is the most influential factor in hospitalization expenses,with a total effect value of0.586,followed by hospital grade,surgical classification,year of admission,whether to op erate,and whether to transfer.3.After establishing case combinations for children hospitali zed with burn and scald,three levels of nodes and 11 case combinations are generated,wit h good homogeneity of hospitalization expenses within each case combination and greater heterogeneity between groupings,and more reasonable model grouping results.4.Exponen tial smoothing model and SARIMA time series model are applied to develop a prediction model for the number of hospital admissions of children aged 0 to 6 years due to injuries b etween 2010 and 2021,and the fitted SARIMA time series model is applied to this study,a nd the final prediction is 954 hospital admissions of children due to injuries in 2022 and 850 in 2023.Conclusion: 4 to 6 years old,boys and rural children injuries occur more peopl e,injury types are mainly traffic injuries,fall injuries,poisoning injuries and burns,should take key prevention and control measures.The number of days of hospitalization is the mo st important influencing factor of hospitalization expenses.The number of days of hospital ization can be shortened by improving the quality of hospital medical services,regulating t he treatment behavior,and strengthening the management of extra-long hospitalization day s.The results of the case mix analysis of DRGs for childhood burn and scald injuries are m ore satisfactory,focusing on the impact of various node characteristics on hospitalization e xpenses,which should be analyzed specifically in practice according to the children’s situa tion.The SARIMA time series model predicts well and can be used for short-term predicti on of the number of injury hospitalizations.