Analysis And Prediction Of Hospitalization Expenses Of Lung Cancer Patients Based On Case Mix

Objective Based on the data on the homepage of lung cancer patients,through the analysis of the data on the homepage of lung cancer patients in a third-class hospital in Bengbu from 2015 to 2019,the characteristics of lung cancer patients and their hospitalization costs in a third-class hospital in Bengbu were understood.To clarify the internal composition and trend of hospitalization costs for lung cancer patients;The influencing factors of hospitalization costs of lung cancer patients were discussed,and the relevant grouping and cost prediction models of lung cancer patients were constructed,so as to reasonably control the growth of hospitalization costs of lung cancer patients,reduce the economic burden of patients and social health,and provide a reference for relevant departments to formulate medical insurance policies.Methods The sample was collected from discharged patients with lung cancer diagnosed mainly between January 1,2015 and December 31,2019.Univariate analysis and multiple linear regression analysis were used to determine the main influencing factors of hospitalization costs,and the E-CHAID algorithm in the decision tree was used to establish the case combination scheme of lung cancer patients,and the payment standard and upper limit cost of each diagnostic group were calculated.The grey correlation method and structural change degree were used to analyze the internal composition of hospitalization costs;The summation autoregressive moving average(ARIMA)model and GM(1,1)model were used to predict the development trend of hospitalization costs of lung cancer patients,and the statistical analysis of relevant data was realized by SPSS25.0 and R4.0.4 software.Results A total of 8460 patients with lung cancer were included.The average length o f hospitalization was(15.99±10.10)days,and the average cost of hospitalization was(23885.06±19262.60)yuan.(1)Length of hospitalization,operation,complications/compl ications,age and outcome were factors affecting hospitalization costs of lung cancer pat ients;A total of 10 DRGs combinations and corresponding hospitalization cost standard s were generated by case combinations of lung cancer patients through decision tree.Th e group with the highest average hospitalization cost per time was DRGs5,which cost u p to 61,299.37 yuan.The lowest average cost per time in DRGs1 group was 7241.54 yu an,with a total of 238 over-limit cases,accounting for 2.81% of all analyzed cases.(2)The average annual inpatient cost of lung cancer patients was in an increasing trend,wit h an average annual growth rate of 3.04%.The top three components of average cost pe r time were drug cost,consumables cost and diagnostic cost,respectively.The top three related costs were drug costs,consumables costs and diagnosis costs.The overall structu re of hospitalization expenses varied 36.27%,and the medical service fee,treatment fee and drug cost changed negatively.The contribution rate of drug cost structure was the la rgest(43.38%),followed by other expenses(19.21%)and consumables(19.11%).(3)T he average absolute error and the average relative error of the GM(1,1)model were 1304.30 and 4.98%,and the average absolute error and the average relative error of the ARI MA model were 1626.33 and 6.93%,respectively.The GM(1,1)grey model had a better fitting effect.It is estimated that in December 2020,the average hospitalization cost of l ung cancer patients will reach 37552.01 yuan,with an annual growth rate of about 1.9.Conclusion The economic burden of lung cancer patients has been alleviated,the drug cost control effect is significant,the diagnosis and consumable cost is the key to control the hospitalization cost,it is suggested to actively carry out the prevention and treatment of lung cancer health education,do a good job in the primary prevention of lung cancer,at the same time strictly implement the implementation of the clinical path of lung cancer diseases,control the length of hospitalization,reasonably increase the proportion of technical labor costs.Reflecting the labor value of medical personnel,optimizing the structure of hospitalization costs to further control the increase of hospitalization costs for lung cancer patients.