| Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of reported hepatitis C cases in Lanzhou from 2010 to 2021,analyze the temporal and spatial distribution of hepatitis C risk in Lanzhou,identify high-risk groups and regions,and explore the influence of socio-economic factors on hepatitis C in Lanzhou,so as to provide scientific basis for the formulation of relevant health policies and the prevention and treatment of hepatitis C.Methods Based on the data of reported hepatitis C cases and the socio-economic data of each county and district of Lanzhou from 2010 to 2021,we analyzed the epidemic characteristics of hepatitis C in Lanzhou.The spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of the risk of hepatitis C in Lanzhou were analyzed by constructing a Bayesian statistical model including temporal or spatial effects and spatial-temporal interaction;By comparing the fitting effects of different Bayesian models,the optimal model was selected to explore the impact of socio-economic factors on the incidence of hepatitis C in Lanzhou.Results 1.A total of 16,979 hepatitis C cases were reported in Lanzhou from2010 to 2021,with an average annual reported incidence rate of 38.36/100,000.The reported incidence rate was the highest in 2012(65.65 / 100000)and the lowest in2021(13.78 / 100000),the reported incidence rate showed a downward trend.The reported cases had no obvious seasonal distribution characteristics,and the number of reported cases was the largest in March.The number of reported cases in males was slightly higher than that in females,and the average age of reported cases was(54.62±16.10)years old,which mainly concentrated in the age group of 40～79,accounting for 78.47% of the total reported cases.The top three occupations of reported cases were 4803 retirees(28.29%),3553 housework and unemployed(20.93%),3333 farmers and migrant workers(19.64%),the top three occupations accounted for 68.84% of reported cases;Hepatitis C cases were reported in all counties and districts of Lanzhou.The average annual reported incidence from high to low was 46.73/100,000 in Qilihe District,46.55/100,000 in Chengguan District,33.78/100,000 in Xigu District,32.53/100,000 in Anning District,28.69/100,000 in Yuzhong County,28.28/100,000 in Yongdeng County,23.00/100,000 in Honggu District and 20.48/100,000 in Gaolan County.The average annual reported incidence in Chengguan District and Qilihe District was higher than the overall level of Lanzhou.2.Spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of hepatitis C risk: from2010 to 2021,the relative risk of hepatitis C in Lanzhou first increased and then decreased,but the change range was small,and the effect of time on hepatitis C was not significant;Chengguan District and Qilihe District were the hot spots of hepatitis C incidence,while Honggu District and Gaolan County were the cold spots of hepatitis C incidence.With the change of time,the relative risk of hepatitis C in Yongdeng County increased,while the relative risk of hepatitis C in Chengguan District and Qilihe District decreased,and the relative risk of disease in other counties fluctuated up and down.3.Among the five fitting models,the DIC of Bayesian spatial-temporal interaction model was the smallest,and the fitting effect of the model was the best.The results of the study on socio-economic influencing factors showed that:per capita GDP(RR=0.767;95%CI: 0.648～0.861)and population density(RR=0.741;95%CI: 0.667～0.821)were negatively associated with the risk of hepatitis C,while the urbanization level(RR=8.050;95%CI: 4.058～15.550)and number of health care institutions(RR=1.571;95%CI: 1.341～1.867)were positively associated with the risk of hepatitis C.Conclusions 1.The reported incidence of hepatitis C in Lanzhou from 2010 to2021 showed an overall downward trend,and there was no obvious seasonal distribution characteristics,the number of reported cases in males was higher than that in females,and the cases were concentrated between 40～79 years old.there were significant occupational differences in reported cases.2.Chengguan District and Qilihe District were hot spots of hepatitis C,while Honggu District and Gaolan County were cold spots of hepatitis C.With the increase of years,the relative risk of hepatitis C in Chengguan District and Qilihe District decreased,while the relative risk of hepatitis C in Yongdeng County increased,which should be focused on prevention and control.3.The level of urbanization,per capita GDP,population density and number of health care institutions have a certain impact on the incidence of hepatitis C in Lanzhou. |
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