Construction Of A Risk Prediction Model For Head And Neck Squamous-cell Carcinoma With Second Primary Esophageal Cancer

Background:With the continuous development of modern medical diagnosis and treatment technology,squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck can achieve a good cure rate,but more and more studies have found that with the increase of the overall survival of patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck,second primary tumors of the esophagus is the main cause of death in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.In recent years,the early intervention of second primary tumors of the esophagus has become an important part of the follow-up of head and neck tumors.If the detection rate of early esophageal cancer and precancerous lesions can be improved in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma,the survival rate of patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma can be improved.Therefore,it is necessary to study a simple model that can be widely used in squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck to predict the risk of second primary esophageal cancer,screen out high-risk groups for second primary esophageal cancer,and carry out early intervention to improve prognosis in patients with quamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck.Objective:In this study,the risk factors of second primary esophageal cancer in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma were quantified by the method of Meta analysis in the previous literature,and the risk ratio,odds ratio and other effect indicators of the risk factors were combined to obtain the combined effect value.On the basis of Logistic analysis,a risk prediction model for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma accompanied by second primary esophageal cancer was constructed.Methods:In this study,the inclusion and exclusion criteria of the included literatures were established.Electronic databases such as CNKI,Wan Fang Database,China Biomedical Literature Database,PubMed,Embase,Wed of Science were searched.Cochrane Library published literature on head and neck squamous cell carcinoma between its inception and December 2022.By reading titles and abstracts,duplicate and unrelated literatures were excluded,and outcome indicators such as survival rate and related clinical features were extracted from the included literatures.The quality of the included literatures was evaluated,and the correlation of risk factors with esophageal second primary cancer in survivors of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma was analyzed by Meta and Logistic analysis.The results were tested for heterogeneity,and on this basis,the Logistic regression risk prediction model of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma with esophageal second primary cancer was constructed.Results:A meta-analysis identified several statistically significant risk factors for the development of second primary cancer of the esophagus in individuals with squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck.These factors included age ≥55 years old,male gender,drinking,smoking,and alcohol flush reaction.The study also found that the likelihood of developing esophageal cancer was higher in individuals with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma located in the oropharynx and hypopharynx.The comprehensive risk was ranked in descending order,with the highest risk being associated with proband cancer located in the hypopharynx,followed closely by cancer located in the oropharynx,alcohol consumption,and larynx.The risk associated with alcohol flush reaction,age ≥ 55 years old,and male gender were also significant but to a lesser extent.Based on these findings,a logistic risk prediction model was constructed for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma with second primary esophageal cancer.Logit(P)=0.312+0.718X1+0.718X2+1.332X3+1.374X4+1.399 X5+1.238X6The 6 risk factors for head and neck cancer are represented by X1,X2,……,X6which respectively correspond to current age ≥55 years old,male gender,alcohol consumption,presence of progenitor cancer in the oropharynx,or larynx,and alcohol flush reaction.In conclusion,the risk prediction model developed in this study has practical applicability due to its simplicity,convenience,and affordability.By identifying high-risk groups and formulating personalized follow-up plans,we can improve the survival rate of head and neck cancer patients.