Research On COVID-19 Transmission Based On SVEIRD Model

Due to the rapid spread of the COVID-19 and the influence of factors such as economic globalization and transportation convenience,the spread and prevention of this epidemic has become the focus of government attention,social focus,and academic research.Based on the above background,this essay takes a specific number of groups in the social network as the research object,improves the SEIR model,considers the age structure,different settings of the incubation period and recovery period,the death population and vaccine resources,and comprehensively measures the impact of the above factors on the spread of the epidemic.In terms of research methods,this essay adopts the method of multi-agent simulation experiments,abstracts individuals in social life into multi-agents and assigns them states and interaction rules respectively,observes the operating rules of the system.The Net Logo platform is used to conduct repeated simulation experiments and corresponding to the analysis of the results,the management enlightenment is drawn based on the conclusion of the simulation experiment.This essay analyzes the effects of different parameters of incubation period and recovery period,stratified age structure,and limited vaccine resources on the spread of the epidemic and the process of prevention and control.The research results show that:(1)The age structure stratification in the social network and the parameter settings of the incubation period and the recovery period have a positive impact on the characterization of the epidemic spread in the real world,making the characterization results more accurate.(2)The allocation and vaccination of vaccine resources according to the possibility of being infected at different ages has the most obvious effect on epidemic prevention and control,and the utilization efficiency of vaccine resources is the highest at this time.(3)Vaccine resources can accelerate the entire development process of the epidemic and can shorten the time for the epidemic to reach the peak of infection and the time for the final system to stabilize.The end of the epidemic is accelerated by vaccinating susceptible people against the virus.But it does not change the height of the outbreak and the number of people infected at the peak of infection.