Analysis Of Traffic Control Effect And Optimization Of Control Point Selection Strategy In Epidemic Transmission

With the rapid development of social economy,the construction of transportation infrastructure is constantly improved,the scale of transportation network is becoming larger,and the flow of personnel is becoming more frequent.In the integrated transportation system,infectious diseases are likely to spread rapidly with the transportation process.While the modern transportation mode shortens the distance,it also makes the disease transmission easier.At the end of 2019,the outbreak of COVID-19 threatened the safety of human life seriously,and the social economy suffered heavy losses.In response to the epidemic,cities in China have successively taken traffic control measures.Facts have proved that these measures have a significant effect on epidemic prevention and control,making phased progress in China’s campaign work.Therefore,it is of great value to study the characteristics of the epidemic situation and its control strategies.（1）This paper has improved the classical SEIR infectious disease model.The intensity factor of traffic control has been introduced to describe the effectiveness of control measures,and it has been considered that the infected persons in the incubation period are an important source of infection for the epidemic of the disease,and a model has been established that the latent persons are infectiousα-SEIR propagation dynamics model,the disease-free equilibrium point and basic regeneration number（R₀）of the model are analyzed by numerical calculation.This paper has quantitatively analyzed the impact of the existence of traffic control measures and the timeliness of traffic control on the development of the epidemic,and conducted a sensitivity analysis on the intensity factors of traffic control.The epidemic spread in Xi’an from December 9,2021 to February 5,2022 has been taken as an example to verify the rationality of the model.Combined with the actual epidemic data and experimental simulation,it is confirmed that the traffic control measures have a significant impact on R₀,as well as the impact of control timeliness and control intensity on the number of infected cases.（2）This paper has analyzed the virus transmission process and control point selection strategy on the transportation network from the global control level.According to the internal mechanism of virus transmission behavior,the average field theory has been used to construct the virus transmission dynamics model based on traffic flow,and calculate the steady-state transmission threshold of the model.On this basis,the inhibition effects of random node control strategy,target node control strategy and node control strategy based on DB index on virus propagation in scale-free networks are studied.The simulation results show that the node control strategy based on node DB index measurement method is better than the control strategy based on node degree value and node intermediary number,and can better inhibit the spread of virus and control the spread of disease.Based on the theory of virus transmission dynamics,this paper has studied the transmission mechanism and characteristics of major outbreaks,quantitatively analyzed the impact of traffic control measures on the development trend of the epidemic,and how to identify the key nodes in the transportation network,and put forward the selection strategy of control points to effectively control the virus transmission in the network,in order to provide theoretical and practical basis for the traffic control scheme under the spread of sudden epidemics.