| Objective:Through the research and analysis of the incidence data of human brucellosis in Heilongjiang Province from 2009 to 2019,this paper describes the distribution characteristics of human brucellosis in Heilongjiang Province at different times,regions and populations;The spatial aggregation of brucellosis was analyzed to find out the hot spots and abnormal areas of brucellosis;The time series prediction model was constructed to predict the incidence trend of brucellosis in Heilongjiang Province in 2021.By revealing the temporal and spatial characteristics of brucellosis in Heilongjiang Province,the study provides a scientific basis for formulating prevention and control strategies and evaluating the effect of prevention and control.Methods:The software Excel 2019 was used to analyze and describe the epidemic trend of human brucellosis cases reported in Heilongjiang Province from 2009 to 2019 in the national infectious disease report information management system;The software Excel2019 was used to describe the case information of 53460 confirmed human brucellosis patients in Heilongjiang Province from 2009 to 2019;Use Geoda1.16 spatial autocorrelation analysis was conducted.The spatial map was used to map the incidence rate of brucellosis data in Heilongjiang province at county scale by using spatial autocorrelation statistics method in Heilongjiang county.Use soft Spss19.0 establish the ARIMA model for the monthly incidence of brucellosis in Heilongjiang from 2009 to 2019.The accuracy of the data was verified by the 2020 data.The model was used to predict the monthly incidence rate of Heilongjiang Province in 2021 and predict the incidence of brucellosis in Heilongjiang province.Results: A.Descriptive Analysis of Human Brucellosis in Heilongjiang Province from 2009 to 2019.(a)2009-2019 cases of brucellosis confirmed in Heilongjiang province were 53460 cases,the average incidence rate was 13.56/10 million,the overall trend showed a trend of first rise(2009-2012),followed by a downward trend(2012-019),the highest incidence rate in 2012(17.41/10 10000),the fluctuation in 2015 was increased(15.41/10 million),and the lowest in 2019(11.00/10 10000).From 2009 to 2019,there were medical records of brucellosis in Heilongjiang province all year round.The occurrence of brucellosis in Heilongjiang Province is periodic,and there is a seasonal high incidence in spring and summer.The number of cases from March to July accounted for 60% of the whole year.(b)From 2009 to 2019,brucellosis cases were reported in cities,districts and counties in Heilongjiang Province.Among the 13 prefecture level cities,the highest annual incidence rate of brucellosis cases was Qigihar City,followed by Daqing City and Heihe City.The lowest incidence rate is Yichun City.In the 125 districts and counties,the incidence rate of the first three cases of brucellosis diagnosed by Melies Daur Autonomous County,the Gannan county.The lowest incidence rate is the three areas in the area of Mei Xi District and Yichun District.(c)Among brucellosis cases,there were 40001 males,accounting for 74.82%;There are 13459 women,accounting for 25.18%,and the ratio of men to women is about 2.97 to1.The peak age of onset is 36-54 years old,accounting for 51.91% of the total.The main occupational group was farmers(85.73%).Temporal and spatial distribution of human brucellosis in Heilongjiang Province from 2009 to 2019B.Spatio-temporal distribution and forecast analysis of human brucellosis in Heilongjiang Province from 2009 to 2019(a)The spatial analysis of human brucellosis in Heilongjiang Province from 2009 to2019 shows that from 2009 to 2012,the areas with high incidence of brucellosis were concentrated in the western region,and the areas with low incidence were concentrated in the central region;During 2013-2019,the areas with high incidence were concentrated in the western part of Heilongjiang and the southeastern part of the country.Overall,the incidence in the western part was still serious.(b)Global autocorrelation analysis shows that the annual incidence of human brucellosis in Heilongjiang Province from 2009 to 2019 has a positive correlation at the district and county scales.(c)Local spatial autocorrelation analysis results:(1)GETIS ord GI * hot spot analysis results show that there are hot spots and cold spots in the brucellosis epidemic in Heilongjiang province every year from 2009 to 2019.Several areas judged to have a high number of hot spots are durbert Menggu Autonomous County,Gannan County,Fularji District,Longjiang County,angxi District,Datong District,merisdau Autonomous County,etc;The cold spot area is mainly concentrated in the central part of Heilongjiang Province,showing a strip area from northeast to southwest on the Heilong administrative map,mainly including most parts of Yichun,Jiamusi,Hegang,Shuangyashan,Harbin,Suihua and other places.(2)Lisa aggregation spatial analysis shows high high aggregation(HH)region and low Low low(LL)region,which are basically consistent with the hot spot region and cold spot region found in GETIS ord GI * hot spot analysis.The high Low low cluster(HL)region is the Wumahe District in 2011,Jiayin County in 2013,2015 and 2016,and the friendship zone in 2017.(d)Use ARIMA data(5,1,1)(0,1,1)12 for 2009-2019 years to establish the monthly incidence rate of brucellosis in Heilongjiang Province,and predict the monthly incidence rate in 2020 and 2021 by using the model.COVID-19 was caused by the average absolute percentage error(MAPE)of 28.49%,and the model fitting effect was generally.The incidence rate of brucellosis in Heilongjiang Province in 2021 was predicted by this model,and the results showed that the incidence rate of 2021 was still decreasing.Conclusions:A.2009 to 2019,the incidence of brucellosis increased and decreased in Heilongjiang province.The incidence rate increased 2009-2012 years,2012-2014 years,and slightly higher in 2015.Then,incidence rate decreased from 2019 to 2019.By 2019,the incidence rate had dropped significantly,but the incidence rate was still higher than the national average.B.2009 to 2019,the incidence rate of brucellosis in Heilongjiang was significantly higher than that in other regions.The incidence was obviously seasonal,and the seasonal incidence was high in 3 ～ July.C.Characteristics of human brucellosis incidence population in Heilongjiang Province from 2009 to 2019: male,36-54 years old,working as a farmer,with a large proportion of the incidence.D.The spatial analysis results of human brucellosis in Heilongjiang Province from2009 to 2019 show that there is a significant spatial agglomeration phenomenon,mainly in the western region of Heilongjiang Province;It is suggested that the prevention and control of brucellosis should be strengthened in the western region;Local spatial autocorrelation analysis suggests that Muling City,surrounding counties and Jiayin County in the southeast of Heilongjiang Province attach great importance to the epidemic situation of brucellosis.E.ARIMA(5,1,1)(0,1,1)12 model was used to predict the incidence of brucellosis in Heilongjiang Province in 2021. |
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