Research On The Impact Of Population Aging On Residents’ Healthcare Consumption Expenditure

According to the seventh census,the population aged 60 or above will reach 18.7% in 2020,of which13.5% will be aged 65 or above,and the aging of China’s population will continue to deepen.In recent years,China’s health care spending has been increasing,which has increased the pressure on families.The current health care system and medical insurance system are not sufficient to cope with the impact of the aging population.Henan Province is a province with a large aging population,and the net outflow of population from Henan Province in the past ten years is 15.49 million people,mostly young and middle-aged people.The population aging in Henan Province is deeper and faster,with a large elderly population and uneven distribution among regions.In general,the total per capita health cost in Henan Province is not up to the national average,but the per capita health care expenditure is basically the same as the national average,and the burden of personal health care cost is heavy.The 14 th Five-Year Plan for Health emphasizes the need to accelerate the construction of basic medical and health care system and improve the social security system.This paper takes Henan Province as an example.In the context of increasing population aging and the urgent need to improve the health care system and medical security system,it is of great significance to understand the current situation of residents’ health care expenditure and study the relationship between population aging and residents’ health care consumption expenditure,in order to reasonably allocate health care resources and improve the health care system and medical security system.Firstly,this paper composes the literature and theories related to population aging and health care expenditure,determines the research idea and method of this paper,and then analyzes the current situation of population aging and the current situation of health care expenditure in Henan Province to have an intuitive understanding of the current situation of population aging and the current situation of residents’ health care expenditure in Henan Province,and puts forward the hypothesis of this paper on the basis of the above analysis.Secondly,this paper uses 13 years of panel data of 18 prefecture-level cities in Henan Province from2007 to 2019,and applies the dynamic panel generalized moments estimation method to explore the extent of the impact of population aging on residents’ health care expenditures.Then,using income level as the threshold variable,a threshold regression was used to further explore whether the impact of population aging on residents’ health care expenditures changes as income level increases.Finally,heterogeneity analysis is conducted to first construct the age concentration rate TAI(65+)to measure the rapid rate of change of population aging,divide the total sample into different subsamples,and explore whether there is a difference in the impact of population aging on residents’ health care expenditures at different aging stages;then,the overall sample is divided by urbanization level to explore whether there is a difference in the impact of population aging on Then,the overall sample is divided by urbanization level to investigate whether there are differences in the effects of population aging on residents’ health care expenditures under different urbanization levels.This paper concludes that the increase of population aging will push up the overall health care expenditure of residents,which is reflected in the fact that the per capita health care expenditure of residents will increase by 1.49% for each unit increase of old age dependency ratio.When the income level is higher,people usually pay more attention to their own maintenance and can afford to buy commercial insurance,so the increase of aging will have less impact on residents’ health care expenditure.In regions where the population is aging faster,the rapid increase in the aging population leads to a large increase in demand for health care services,and the increase in aging has a greater impact on residents’ health care expenditures.In regions with lower urbanization levels,the increase in the old-age dependency ratio has a greater impact on residents’ health care expenditures due to the relatively low reimbursement ratio of medical insurance.Finally,based on the empirical results,this paper proposes the following countermeasures: first,accelerate the construction of medical and health service system;second,accelerate the construction of elderly service system;third,improve the medical insurance system;fourth,strengthen the health management of the aging population;fifth,improve the income level of the residents and improve the income distribution policy;fifth,pay attention to the problem of low fertility rate and pay attention to children’s medical care.