Potential Habitat Of Monochamus Alternatus In Chongzhou Based On MaxEnt Model

Monochamus alternatus is not only a trunk borer of pine trees,but also a main vector of Pine Wilt Disease(PWD).In recent years,the spread of PWD in China led to the death of pine trees in a large area,which caused huge economic losses to the forest industry and threatened the forest ecological security seriously.At present,the research on Monochamus alternatus mainly focuses on chemical control,but there is little research on the suitable area of Monochamus alternatus.In this study,the Maxent model used 2021and climate data from 1970 to 2000 to predict the potential habitat of Monochamus alternatus in the Chongzhou,at the same time,slope,aspect and altitude,vegetation coverage,vegetation type and host distribution factors were considered.The main factors affecting the distribution of Monochamus alternatus in the study area were identified,and the relationship between the main factors and the distribution of Monochamus alternatus was explored,to provide scientific reference for the control of Monochamus alternatus.The results were as follows:1.By means of Jackknife and correlation analysis,the five dominant factors affecting the distribution of Monochamus alternatus were the warmest seasonal precipitation(Bio18),vegetation coverage(FVC),the average temperature in the driest season(Bio09),the distribution coefficient of pine(Pinus)and the lowest temperature in the coldest month(BIO06).The optimum vegetation coverage(FVC)of Monochamus alternatus in the study area was 0.3-0.6.In this study,the ROC curve method was used to evaluate the accuracy of the model.In the ROC curve test,the AUC value is 0.999 and the test data value is 0.998.The results show that Maxent model has a high reliability in predicting the distribution of potential niche areas of Monochamus alternatus in Chongzhou.2.The accuracy of the model was evaluated by ROC curve method.In the ROC curve test,the AUC value was 0.998 for the 0.999 Test data,which reached the excellent level in the evaluation criteria.The Maxent model has high reliability in predicting the distribution of potential niche of Monochamus alternatus in Chongzhou.3.In this study,we compared the 2021 climate data with those of 1970-2000,and found that the 2021 area decreased by 126.14 km~2,and the high-suitable area decreased by6%and 66.66 km~2,respectively.Based on the results of field surveys and trap data of Monochamus alternatus in 2022,it was concluded that the predicted habitat of Monochamus alternatus was closer to the actual distribution of Monochamus alternatus under 2021 climate conditions,therefore,it is feasible to use Maxent model to fit the previous year’s climate data to predict the potential niche of Monochamus alternatus,and the prediction results are more accurate.4.In this study,the potential suitable area of Monochamus alternatus in Chongzhou was about 463.23 km~2,and the 2021 area was 626.06 km~2.The high-fitness zones are mainly distributed in Daoming town,Wangchang town,Huaiyuan town and Gongyi Township of Chongzhou Province,the data from 2022 showed that the average number of traps in daoming town,Wangchang town,Huaiyuan town and Gongyi Township was16.75,34.25,20.83 and 33.63 respectively,in the control of Monochamus alternatus,these4 townships were taken as the key points.