Prediction Of Sustainable Development Level Of Maoershan Forest Farm Based On System Dynamics

Researchers have done a lot of research in the construction of sustainable development evaluation system,however,most of the relevant literatures only analyzed the current situation of the study area,ignored the simulation and prediction of the future trend of regional sustainable development.Therefore,based on the second-class survey data of forest resources in Maoershan Forest Farm in 2004 and 2016,this study established the evaluation index system of sustainable development at the management unit scale by selecting 23 indicators from the aspects of economy,environment and society.In the meantime,calculated the index weights by entropy weight method and analytic hierarchy process(AHP).The index weighting method was used to calculate the evaluation value and get the evaluation result.Analyzed the development of the forest farm during 2004-2016 by comparing the system evaluations and specific indicators of the evaluation index in the 2 phases,then being aware of the advantages and disadvantages of sustainable development in the study area.In addition,this study introduced the system dynamics method,used Vensim PLE software to draw the system dynamics flow diagram,built the system dynamics model,explored the coupling relationship between variables,obtained the concrete simulation results,tested the effectiveness of the model,then designed the optimization path,and predicted the sustainable development level of forest farm under different development paths in the future to 2035,to provide practical and effective reference for improving the level of sustainable development of forest farm.The main research results are as follows:(1)According to the calculated results of the constructed sustainable development evaluation index system,the sustainable development level was 0.597 in 2004 and 0.833 in 2016.Comparing to the classification of sustainable level,it indicates that Maoershan Forest Farm has been promoted from the weak sustainable stage to the primary sustainable stage,which was showing a good development trend.The evaluation value of economic and social sustainability index increased from 0.753 and 0.659 to 0.768 and 0.790,respectively,which were both in the primary sustainable state in 2016.In 2004,the evaluation value of environmental sustainability index was 0.538,and in 2016,its evaluation value was 0.875,which has been significantly improved,reaching the intermediate sustainable state.In the evaluation process,it was found that the sustainability of forest resources and environment was increased from 0.847 to 0.918,maintaining a high evaluation value;The structure of age group and stock volume per unit area of timber stand showed better performance,but the ratio of stock volume of mixed forest decreased.(2)After the model passed the validity test,five optimization paths were designed according to the established evaluation index system and system dynamics model.The simulation results showed that maintaining the status quo path could make the sustainable development level of forest farm reach 0.899 in 2035;With the increase of population,the sustainable development level will decrease to 0.897.The sustainable development level will be increased to 0.901 by appropriate adjustment of industrial structure;its effect on the sustainable development level of the study area is not as good as that of the economic prominence path(0.919).Among the five paths,the comprehensive development path combined with the three optimization methods has the best regional applicability and is expected to make the sustainable development level of the forest farm reach 0.924 in 2035.