Study On Occurrence Regularity And Risk Zoning Of Forest Fire In Hubei Province

In recent years,under the influence of global climate anomalies,forest fires have occurred frequently,causing serious damage to forest resources and even threatening human life.In view of this,it is particularly important to study and analyze the temporal and spatial distribution law of forest fire,do a good job in regional forest fire risk zoning,understand the driving factors of forest fire,formulate appropriate fire prevention measures,and scientifically allocate forest fire resources.Using Hubei Province as the research area,this study makes a statistical analysis on the historical record data of forest fire in Hubei Province from 2011 to 2019,establishes a machine learning algorithm forest fire prediction model combined with factors such as meteorology,vegetation,terrain and human activities,and makes a forest fire risk level zoning map of Hubei Province.Then,taking the opportunity of the strict lockdown during covid-19 in Hubei Province,from the perspective of control factors,people’s home isolation is regarded as a variable to control human factors,and the impact of human factors on forest fire is studied.The main conclusions of the study are as follows:(1)From 2011 to 2019,forest fires in Hubei Province mainly occurred in winter and spring,of which April is the month with the largest number of fires in a year.The occurrence of forest fire is mainly caused by human factors,and the main factor is fire for sacrifice.Among the administrative units,the administrative units from the southeast to the north of Suizhou City,Huanggang City,Xiangfan City,Huangshi City and Xianning City are seriously damaged by forest fire.(2)Both random forest and xgboost can meet the needs of forest fire prediction in Hubei Province,but the effect of random forest model is better.Using Arc GIS Kriging interpolation analysis,it can be observed that the forest fire risk in the northeast and southeast of Hubei Province is high and the high-risk areas are concentrated;The forest resources in the western region are concentrated,but most of them are in low-risk areas.Suizhou City,Huanggang City,Huangshi City and Xianning City are in areas with high forest fire risk,so we should pay attention to forest fire prevention.According to the independent variable partial correlation analysis of the model,the probability of forest fire is higher when the relative humidity is small and the temperature is high and there is no precipitation;The higher the elevation,the steeper the slope,the lower the probability of forest fire.Meteorological and topographic factors have a great influence on the occurrence of forest fire,which is also the key factor causing the geographical distribution of forest fire in this area.(3)In the study of human factors on forest fire during covid-19 blockade,it is found that human factors have a significant impact on forest fire.After controlling human factor treatment(home isolation),the occurrence of forest fire decreases significantly.Sacrificial fire during spring and Qingming Festival is an important factor leading to the reduction of forest fire during blockade.To sum up,to reduce the harm of forest fire and achieve the purpose of protecting forest resources,especially the administrative units with high forest fire risk and concentrated high-risk areas in the northeast and southeast of Hubei Province,it is important to strengthen forest fire patrol in winter and spring,especially during the Spring Festival and Qingming Festival,to encourage people reduce outdoor sacrificial activities such as set off firecrackers,burn ghost coins and fireworks in the forest area.