Research On The Performance Of Farmers’ Climate Adaptation

Climate change has a profound impact on human survival and development,especially for the agricultural sector in developing countries.For China,agriculture is still an industry emphasizing the coincidence of natural reproduction and economic reproduction.It is a department based on the maturity of crops and the growth and development of livestock.The main producers coordinate climate and environmental factors such as temperature,precipitation and humidity in the process of agricultural production.The fluctuation and abnormal potential of climate factors such as light,heat,temperature,humidity and wind speed caused by climate change will aggravate the risk of agricultural production,change the temporal and spatial pattern of agricultural production,and then lead to fluctuation of the supply of basic agricultural products.At the same time,China’s agriculture is in the transition stage from high-speed growth to high-quality development,and it is facing the structural imbalance of agricultural products supply and the aggravation of agricultural pollution.Under the interwoven of the old and new contradictions,climate change undoubtedly further aggravates the agricultural uncertainty in China.Therefore,how to guarantee the supply of basic agricultural products and improve quality and efficiency under the background of climate change is a major challenge that China must face in agricultural development.The impact of climate change on pig breeding can be regarded as a typical example,which shows that the traditional extensive production mode formed for a long time in pig breeding industry is difficult to sustain under the condition of increasing climate risk.Specifically,on the one hand,it is caused by the increasing climate risk,and the related extreme weather events lead to the decline of livestock growth performance,and even cause disease and death of livestock in extreme cases.On the other hand,the traditional culture production mode often takes excessive use of veterinary medicine as the main climate risk prevention measures,which will aggravate the hidden danger of food safety and deterioration of resources and environment.Therefore,the key to ensure the stability of pork supply,food safety and the protection of resources and environment is to coordinate the contradiction between climate risk and extensive production mode.As the basic production body of Chinese pig breeding industry,the contradiction between climate risk and extensive production mode is mainly concentrated on the level of farmers’ production behavior.Chinese farmers have been adapting to natural risks for a long time The thinking trend of veterinary medicine and antibiotic dependence has been formed in the process,which is aggravating the contradiction between them.In order to adapt to climate change effectively,Chinese pig breeding industry must put its foothold on promoting the transformation of the production behavior of the majority of farmers,and solve the contradiction between "excessive application of veterinary drugs" and "climate risk".This also means that the effective climate adaptation behavior of farmers must promote the improvement of the efficiency of production factors on one hand,on the other hand,reduce the climate damage of farmers Loss.Based on this,this paper first defines and reviews the relevant concepts and important theoretical basis,and comprehensively reviews the relevant literature on climate change and agricultural production at home and abroad,and constructs a theoretical model to analyze the behavior mechanism of climate adaptation behavior of farmers.Theoretically,it concludes that two climate adaptation measures are proposed to improve the output of aquaculture and improve the production efficiency Is the path mechanism for loss reduction.Secondly,the local climate characteristics and the climate adaptation characteristics of farmers were described and analyzed by using the survey data of 739 pig farmers in 52 counties(cities)of 5 provinces in 2012.Then,in the empirical analysis,this paper first uses the empirical thinking of combining tendency score matching and selecting the stochastic frontier production function to analyze the influence of climate adaptability behavior on the efficiency of aquaculture production.Then,the endogenous transformation model is used to discuss the impact of climate adaptation on net income of aquaculture and the medium effect model is used to analyze the promotion and production efficiency of aquaculture Two potential loss reduction mechanisms are proposed for rate improvement.Finally,based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward the policy suggestions for implementing the pre disaster warning work of meteorological disasters,promoting the measures of climate adaptation by differentiation and improving the level of climate adaptation of farmers.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)the degree of asset specialization and the level of specialization determine the climate adaptability of farmers.Specifically,the characteristics of household owners and families play an important role in the selection of climate adaptation behaviors of farmers,among which vertical cooperation,specialization,scale of breeding and weather death have a positive effect on the climate adaptation behavior of farmers,and non productive fixed assets have inhibitory effect on the climate adaptation behavior of farmers.(2)The adoption of climate adaptation behavior of farmers can significantly improve the efficiency of farmers.When the idea of combining the tendency score matching with the choice of the production function of the correction random frontier corrected the selective deviation caused by the observable and non observable factors,the average production efficiency of the adaptive group was 0.618,the average of the production efficiency of the non adaptive group was 0.551,and the difference between the two groups was 0.067.The results of the control group showed that the direction and the size of the impacts of the climate adaptation behavior on the production efficiency of the farmers would be unclear if the selective deviation was not controlled.(3)The climate adaptability of farmers can significantly reduce the net income loss of aquaculture.After correcting the sample selectivity deviation,the endogenous transformation model estimates and compares the net income expectation of the farmers in the adaptation group to adopt the climate adaptive behavior decision and the non climate adaptive decision(anti fact group),which shows that the climate adaptation behavior can significantly improve the net income of about 8.95% of the aquaculture,and the climate adaptive behavior can be reduced to a certain extent.(4)The potential path of reducing the effect of climate adaptation behavior is to improve the yield and efficiency of culture.The improvement of culture output and productivity is part of the intermediary variable of the decrease of net income loss of the climate adaptive behavior of the farmers.The path of raising the output of culture can explain the reduction effect of 20.2% of the climate adaptive behavior,and the path of improving the production efficiency can explain the reduction effect of 31.2% of the climate adaptive behavior.The main policy suggestions of this paper are as follows:(1)implement the early warning work of agricultural meteorological information.For the local governments vulnerable to meteorological disasters,it is necessary to establish and improve the early warning mechanism of meteorological public services,and prevent and avoid the losses before causing meteorological losses.(2)The regional and seasonal climate risks should be paid attention to,and the climate adaptation measures should be promoted by differentiation.There are differences in climate risks in different regions in different seasons.Local agricultural machinery promotion departments should actively guide farmers to adopt different types of adaptive measures to reduce the adverse effects of climate change and stabilize the production of aquaculture industry.(3)Identify the current climate adaptation capacity of the farmers and improve the level of climate adaptation of the farmers.In the context of climate change,different asset level farmers often reflect different climate adaptation capacity,which is caused by the established capital stock of the farmers.The current climate adaptation ability of the farmers should be identified accurately,and effective differentiation methods should be adopted to improve the adaptive capital of the farmers according to local conditions.