Study On Identification And Space Allocation Of Fallow In Yunxi County Based On Ecology And Food Security

Agriculture is an important cornerstone of the national economy and is directly related to the national economy and people’s lives.As a major agricultural country,my country has always implemented the basic principles of rational utilization of land resources.Since 2016,my country has carried out the pilot work of cultivated land rotation and fallow.This is a major national action for land environmental protection and is of great significance to maintaining land ecological security and food security.Carry out research on cultivated land fallow issues,clarify the suitability of cultivated land fallow in the study area,the allowable fallow scale under food security,and formulate a scientific space allocation plan for the fallow area,which is very important for the sustainable development of agriculture,the improvement of agricultural income,and the transformation of agricultural economy.and optimization play a role in promoting.This paper takes Yunxi County,Shiyan City,Hubei Province as the research area,and based on the combination of national policies,the actual situation of Yunxi County and related theoretical methods,the research on fallow identification and spatial allocation of cultivated land in Yunxi County is carried out.By constructing an evaluation index system for the urgency of arable land fallow,the urgency of arable land in Yunxi County is judged,and the annual demand for arable land in Yunxi County during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is estimated from the perspective of food security.During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period,Yunxi County’s annual fallowable land scale will be allocated.Finally,a reasonable space allocation will be made to the fallowable farmland map spots in Yunxi County during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period,and an annual fallow implementation plan will be formulated in batches.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:(1)From the perspective of cultivated land ecological security,this paper uses the PSR model to screen 15 indicators such as population density,grain yield,and labor force ratio in the primary industry from the perspectives of pressure,state,and response,and constructs the urgent fallow of cultivated land in Yunxi County.The index system for degree evaluation was established;the weight of each index was determined by using the analytic hierarchy process;the comprehensive score of the degree of fallow urgency of each block was obtained through index standardization and comprehensive evaluation;the natural breakpoint method was used,and the degree of fallow urgency of cultivated land from high to low was obtained.From low to low,it is divided into five levels: extremely urgent,very urgent,relatively urgent,moderately urgent,and not at all urgent.The results show that the cultivated land area in the general urgent level is the largest,accounting for 12798.10 hectares,accounting for 31.76% of the total cultivated land area;the cultivated land area in the relatively urgent class is the second,12138.41 hectares,accounting for 30.12% of the total cultivated area;The area of arable land at the urgent level is 6974.52 hectares,accounting for 17.31% of the total cultivated land area;the area of arable land at the level of no urgent fallow is 5222.70 hectares,accounting for 12.96% of the total area of arable land;the area ofarable land at the extreme urgent level is the smallest,at 3165.27 hectares,accounting for 7.85% of the total cultivated land area.(2)Under the constraints of food security,this paper predicts the annual maximum fallow scale of Yunxi County during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period(2022-2025).First,comprehensively use grey forecasting model,trend analysis method and average annual growth rate method to determine the effects of population,per capita grain demand,grain self-sufficiency rate,multiple cropping index,grain-to-crop ratio,and grain yield per unit area on food security supply and cultivated land demand.Then,with the help of the food security method prediction model,the annual demand for cultivated land in Yunxi County under the food security constraint target during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period(2022-2025);the actual cultivated land area and cultivated land demand The difference between them is regarded as the maximum size that can be fallow in that year.The results show that in 2022,2023,2024,and 2025,the maximum allowable fallow areas of Yunxi County are 1191.90 hectares,2843.07 hectares,2271.81 hectares,and 2409.23 hectares,respectively,and the total maximum allowable fallow land is 8716.01 hectares.(3)According to the principle of fallow urgency from large to small,and based on the total amount of fallow arable land(8716.01 hectares)in Yunxi County during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period,a total of 8,466 fallowable arable land spots were screened out.,the actual area is 8715.70 hectares.In terms of time sequence arrangement,according to the principle of giving priority to basic farmland and the contiguous degree of fields from large to small,and with the annual fallowable scale as the constraint,the fallow plots were delineated from 8,466 plots year by year.The results show that in 2022,1058 plots of cultivated land will be designated fallow,with a fallow area of 1190.19 hectares;in 2023,418 plots of cultivated land will be designated with a fallow area of 1188.81 ha;The area is 1901.27hectares;in 2025,802 arable land are actually designated fallow,with a fallow area of1755.68 hectares,Yunxi County should take maintenance and repair measures such as biological fertilization,farmland infrastructure construction,and land leveling projects according to local conditions.