Estimation Of Agricultural Carbon Emission And Analysis Of Carbon Emission Reduction Potential In China

Against the backdrop of severe global warming and a dramatic increase in greenhouse gas emissions,carbon emission reduction has received global attention.At present,agriculture has become the second largest source of greenhouse gases,and modern agriculture has the characteristics of high input and high output,the excessive input of agricultural materials such as fertilizers and pesticides has led to an increase in carbon emissions,the differences in agricultural production and resource endowments among provinces result in different carbon emissions and carbon potential from province to province.Therefore,clarifying the current situation of agricultural carbon emissions in China,studying the basic characteristics of inter-provincial agricultural carbon emissions in China,identifying the key areas of agricultural carbon emissions,and analyzing the inter-provincial agricultural carbon emission reduction potential are important for reducing carbon emissions from agriculture and essential to achieve China’s goal of reaching the carbon peak by 2030.Taking 31 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)in China(excluding Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)as an example,this paper uses the carbon emission coefficient method to measure the total and intensity of China’s agricultural carbon emissions from 2003 to 2020 through six indicators of agricultural production material inputs.The spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of agricultural carbon emissions in 31 provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)(excluding Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)are derived,and the non-radial non-expected output model is applied to analyze the agricultural carbon emission reduction potential of 31provinces(municipalities and autonomous regions)(excluding Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan).The results show that: First,the total agricultural carbon emissions in China showed an inverted U-shape from 2003 to 2020,with a trend of rapid growth followed by a slow decline;Second,China’s agricultural carbon emission intensity shows a general trend of slow decline followed by a sharp decline from 2003 to 2020;Third,the total amount of agricultural carbon emissions varies greatly between provinces,with Henan in first place and Tibet in least,and 13 major grain-producing regions in China are the regions with more agricultural carbon emissions;Fourth,there are significant differences in agricultural carbon emission reduction potential between provinces from2003 to 2020.Ningxia has the largest agricultural carbon emission reduction potential,and Shanghai has the smallest agricultural carbon emission reduction potential;Fifth,fertilizer is the largest source of carbon in agricultural production,and its agricultural carbon emissions from the agricultural production process must be paid attention to.Based on the above research results,this paper proposes the following countermeasures to promote carbon emission reduction in agriculture:(1)shift the focus of emission reduction to optimize functional emission reduction;(2)clarify the tasks of carbon emission reduction in agriculture;(3)promote the exchange of technologies and experiences in agricultural emission reduction;(4)improve the efficiency of agricultural material utilization.