The Construction And Empirical Research Of The Method Of Predicting Scholars' Awards

The purpose of science and technology awards is not only to commend the outstanding academic contributions made by scholars,but also to encourage more scholars to climb the peak of science and promote the leapfrog development of science and technology in the whole society.Predicting the award outstanding talents in science research,can judge the possibility of scientific research personnel for the science and technology reward size at the same time,also can such as academy for colleges and universities in personnel training and introduction,talent policy science,the scientific research resources reasonable allocation to provide important reference,in talent development and cultivating indispensable to play a positive role.This paper on the basic theory and method for prediction of scholar award on the basis of the review scholar award basic review procedures,according to different stages of awards set the corresponding index system to realize step by step a scholar of the winning candidate screening,and through the Delphi method and analytic hierarchy process(ahp)consult expert advice and shows that the index weight of the index system,to build a complete scientific system of scholar award prediction method.The list of scholars' award eligibility is mainly determined by using classic indicators of metrology,such as the number of citations,number of published papers,age or length of scientific research;From the perspective of "academic career",the overall academic performance and recent academic performance of scholars are comprehensively evaluated,and then the list of scholars nominated for awards is determined.Finally,the final evaluation is carried out through academic career evaluation,joint cooperation and citation identification,so as to construct a scientific and complete evaluation system for predicting scholars' awards.In the part of empirical research,empirical research was carried out on the winners of Price Prize2015,2017 and 2019,which are the most authoritative awards in the field of informometrics,to verify the scientific nature and operability of the method.Through the verification of the winners in the above years,it was concluded that the method was feasible and accurate.Through the above research,the feasibility and scientificity of the prize-winning prediction model are verified.The conclusions are as follows: First,the award of scholars can be predicted;Second,in order to ensure the accuracy of the prediction,the evaluation of recent academic performance is indispensable.Thirdly,through the understanding of expert opinions,talent evaluation should not only focus on the number of published papers and the impact factors of journals,but also pay attention to the quality and innovation of scientific research results.Fourth,cooperation between scholars can play an important "icing on the cake" role in obtaining scientific and technological awards.