| Objective: To construct the evaluation index system of Healthy China construction capacity,and to analyze the development of Healthy China construction capacity of major large cities in China from 2014 to 2019 by using subjective and objective evaluation methods,and to compare the situations of regions and urban agglomerations and forecast the future development.To analyze the regional characteristics and future development trend of the construction capacity of Healthy China,and provide data evidences and theoretical basis for the formulation of policies to improve the construction capacity of Healthy China.Methods: By analyzing the current research progress in the field of literature,the evaluation index system of Healthy China construction capacity in the new era was constructed from four dimensions.Subjective and objective comprehensive empowerment,ranking cities of the four periods from 2014 to 2019 according to the comprehensive score,observing and summarizing the changes in the total score of cities and the four dimensions,according to the affiliation of each city in the region and urban agglomeration,the comparative analysis of the overall Healthy China construction capacity of the region and the urban agglomeration from 2014 to 2019 was carried out,and the advantages and disadvantages of the regions were explored from various dimensions.Finally,based on GM（1,1）,the construction capacity of different regions and urban agglomerations is predicted at two key time points in 2025 and 2030.Results:（1）In terms of the overall ranking results of cities,Beijing,Shanghai,Nanjing,Hangzhou,Xiamen,Guangzhou,Shenzhen,Tianjin and Wuhan have remained in the top 10 for more than three times from 2014 to 2019,while Xining,Qiqihar,Huainan,Ganzhou and Baoding have remained in the bottom 10 for more than three times;（2）In the past five years,Kunming,Yinchuan,Shijiazhuang,Jining,Qinhuangdao and other cities have made great progress in the ranking,but the overall score of most cities in the bottom has not improved;（3）The overall health score of different regions has improved over time,and the regional ranking results in each period are basically the same,which is Eastern region > Western Region ≈ Central Region > Northeast Region;（4）The Healthy China construction ability of three major urban agglomerations is higher than that of other regions,and the order of healthy China construction ability is Pearl River Delta > Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei > Yangtze River Delta;（5）According to the forecast results,the healthy development of the western region will rapidly approach that of the eastern region by 2030,while the northeast region will continue to lag behind and the gap will increase.Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has developed rapidly,and is comparable to that of the Pearl River Delta region,followed by the Yangtze River Delta region.The healthy development of the three urban agglomerations is relatively coordinated,but compared with other regions,their advantages will increase slightly in the future.Conclusions: From the evaluation of the four phases from 2014 to 2019,it is found that basically all large cities have made progress in health China construction capacity,but the areas with higher overall scores are still concentrated in areas with good infrastructure and relatively developed economy,the difference in health development between them and the underdeveloped regions will not be eliminated in the short term.The coordinated regional development of healthy China has achieved initial effects,but the healthy development of underdeveloped regions such as northeast China needs to be accelerated.The healthy China construction capacity of the three major urban agglomerations is obviously higher on the whole and each has its own strengths.In the future,while maintaining a high-level coordinated development,it is necessary to enhance its driving role in promoting the development of health construction in other regions. |
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