| With the proposal of Outline for the “Healthy China 2030” initiative and the“Healthy China Strategy”,our country put a high attention on high incidence of epidemic diseases.It has aroused widespread concern in different disciplines.Recently,HFMD has frequently occurred in China,it has been listed as a class C infectious disease by Ministry of Health.Within ten years,HFMD morbidity increased rapidly,which has seriously threatened people’s health and social economy in Urumqi.Under the guidance of geography,epidemiology theory,the research results have an important guiding role in Urumqi’s public health risk assessment,prevention and control measures assessment,promotion of reasonable allocation of medical resources,accurate prevention and control of HFMD.Based on the long-time data from 2014 to 2018,this study develops the scientific statistical models of HFMD.Geography and epidemiology theories are used to analyze HFMD distribution and key driving factors.According the key socio-economic and environment drivers to project HFMD incidence in the future,connect three parts of "distribution status,influencing factors,prediction model" in series.From the perspective of risk prediction,this research proposes specific measures for Urumqi to respond to the HFMD.Research shows that:(1)On the overall spatial distribution of HFMD in six functional areas of Urumqi from 2014 to 2018,shows the characteristic that HFMD morbidity are concentrated in urban center areas,including North of the city and South of the city.Fewer morbidity in marginal areas,including Northern suburbs ecological agricultural area,Southern Suburban Ecological Tourism Area,Ecological preservation area,Dabancheng Cultural Tourism area.The overall development of HFMD in Urumqi expanded and developed toward the southeast from 2014 to 2018.In the south of the city,Shaybak district formed a new high density of sick population concentration.In terms of time distribution,it can be divided into four stages: " rarely-gradually increasing-soaringsubside".Three areas HFMD patients have strong spatial agglomeration,it belongs to the “high-high agglomeration” area.Dabancheng Cultural Tourism area spatial agglomeration of patients is relatively weak,it belongs to the low-low agglomeration area.Ecological preservation area and Southern Suburban Ecological Tourism Area belong to spatial random distribution,there is no obvious agglomeration feature.(2)Considering regional characteristics and data reliability,we screened total 11 factors from 3 levels.There is a relatively positive relationship between HFMD incidence and socio-economic and nature environment factors.Time-divided detection and region-divided detection results show that: key socio-economic drivers conducive to HFMD include road network density,population density,industrial structure,key nature environment drivers conducive to HFMD include temperature,precipitation and wind speed.And each factors are analyzed one by one.The interaction detection results indicated that the influence of various factors on the incidence of HFMD was enhanced under the interaction.Find out that socio-economic factors play a leading role in spatial distribution of risk of HFMD,natural environmental factors play a basic role in spatial distribution of risk of HFMD.(3)By binary Logistic model,well predicted the probability of the incidence of HFMD under various influencing factors.Research shows that: high risk area are gather in urban center areas,including North of the city and South of the city.Lower risk area are gather in marginal areas,including Dabancheng Cultural Tourism area,Southern Suburban Ecological Tourism area,Northern suburbs ecological agricultural area,Ecological preservation area.(4)Based on the results of impact of each factors on HFMD,starting from six urban functional areas and three levels,including growth and reproduction of pathogens,transmission and spread of pathogens,impact on patients,and proposes specific measures for Urumqi to respond to the HFMD epidemic. |
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