Analysis Of Risk Factors Of Recurrent Acute Biliary Pancreatits And Establishment Of Pridictive Risk Model

Objective: To research the risk factors of recurrent biliary pancreatitis,and assist clinicians to accurately predict the recurrence rate of the disease during the first attack of pancreatitis through the construction of risk prediction model,develop individualized follow-up strategy,put forward correct life guidance,and assist in solving clinical decisions and improving prognosis.Methods:Retrospective analysis of 120 ABP patients hospitalized in the Department of Gastroenterology in our hospital from January 2015 to December 2019,and they were divided into the recurrent group and the non-recurrent group according to the follow-up.The independent sample t test and binary logistic regression were used to analyze the single risk factors and risk factors of recurrent biliary pancreatitis,and then the model was constructed and the prediction accuracy of the model was evaluated.Results:The prevalence of fatty liver,GGT value,biliary obstruction rate,the proportion of ampullary diverticulum,gallbladder neck stone rate,and the number of people with smoking history and drinking history in the recurrent group were all higher than those in the non-recurrent group(P value<0.05).Personal history,GGT and treatment were risk factors for recurrence of biliary pancreatitis.The model constructed by GGT,personal history and treatment had the best predictive ability of disease recurrence(area under ROC curve was 0.749).Conclusions:Personal history,GGT and treatment were risk factors for recurrence of biliary pancreatitis.Patients can prevent recurrence by quitting smoking,drinking,healthy diet and exercising appropriately.Doctors need to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of patients with biliary pancreatitis,and those who are suitable for EST surgery should be treated as far as possible,so as to reduce the recurrence rate.