A Prognostic Model For Predicting Tumor-specific Survival After Glioblastoma Surgery

Background: Glioblastoma,also known as Glioblastoma multiforme(Glioblastoma,GBM),is a rapidly growing tumor and the most aggressive brain malignant tumor with an inferior prognosis.Therefore,predicting the prognosis of GBM has always been an essential part of improving survival.The purpose of this study is to use the National Cancer Institute database(SEER)database to determine the risk factors for survival of GBM patients after surgery and to use a population-based largescale cohort study to predict overall survival(OS)and cancer specificity Cancerspecific survival(CSS)nomogram.Methods: We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of 12,959 patients with primary resectable glioblastoma who were enrolled in the SEER database from 2004 to 2015 and divided the data into training sets and validation sets by randomized grouping.SPSS 25.0 statistical software and R 4.0.2 were used for statistical analysis of the patient data,to explore the risk factors affecting patients with glioblastoma after surgery,and to develop the prognosis histograph of the patients.Results: Univariate analysis showed that age,race,tumor size,tumor location,tumor side,radiotherapy,and chemotherapy are factors that affect the prognosis of patients with glioblastoma after surgery;multivariate COX analysis and competitive risk events showed that: The patient’s age,race,tumor size,tumor side,radiotherapy,and chemotherapy are independent risk factors that affect the prognosis of glioblastoma after surgery.Use the nomogram to predict the risk of OS and CSS in patients with glioblastoma,and verify it through the Concordance Index(C-index).The C-index of the OS and CSS prediction nomograms for one year are respectively Are 0.702 and0.695.The calibration chart shows that the prediction model has a good prediction fit.Conclusion: This study found that the patient’s age,race,tumor size,tumor side,radiotherapy,and chemotherapy are independent risk factors that affect the prognosis of glioblastoma.Based on the SEER database,a relatively complete and accurate prognostic nomogram for patients with glioblastoma after surgery has been established.A well-calibrated nomogram can facilitate clinicians to formulate a more comprehensive treatment evaluation plan for patients in practice.