Estimation Of Quarantine Failure Rate For COVID-19 And Analysis Of Its Influcing Factors

COVID-19 has become a global pandemic.How to control the epidemic and recover economic has become a difficult problem facing all countries.The situation of China’s epidemic prevention and control has been steadily improving over the past few months,and the epidemic prevention and control has achieved a phased victory.However,in recent new increasing cases,foreign input has accounted for a large proportion.Therefore,"external defense input" has become a long-term and arduous task,and quarantine is the main control measure of "external defense input".At present,the most common quarantine time is 14 days.However,many experts and scholars have doubts about whether the quarantine time-14 days is long enough.Now,more and more cases show that after the end of the 14 day quarantine,these cases are detected positive and cause local epidemic,such as Beijing and Shenyang;Due to the consideration of this kind of situation,many places have issued corresponding policies,such as extending the quarantine time from 14 days to 21 days,and even Zhejiang stipulates the implementation of "14 + 7 + 7" health management measures for imported cases,which increases the economic burden and is not conducive to economic recovery.Therefore,whether the quarantine time should be adjusted to a few days has become the top priority of the analysis and research.From the perspective of calculating the quarantine failure rate,1)We calculate the incubation period distribution by using Markov Monte Carlo(MCMC)parameter estimation method.And we find that the median of incubation period distribution is about 6.5 days,and the proportion of incubation period exceeding 14 days is 9.7%.2)Through multivariate analysis of variance,it is found that age has a significant effect on the incubation period,while gender has no significant effect.The incubation period of ’0-17’ and ’> = 65’ age is relatively long,and that of other age stages is relatively short,then the distribution of incubation period in different ages was obtained in the same way;3)The formula of quarantinefailure rate is constructed and verified by random simulation.It is found that the failure rate of quarantinefor 14 days is about 1.86%;4)Considering the expansion of the probability model in 3),a real-time formula for calculating the quarantine failure rate is constructed.Finally,the daily data of newly diagnosed cases in the United States and Canada are collected to simulate the change of the quarantine failure rate.It is found that the quarantine failure rate in the United States and Canada fluctuates around 4%,and we obtains the conclusion that the quarantine failure rate is closely related to the exponential growth rate-the higher the exponential growth rate at a certain time,the higher the quarantine failure rate;Based on the research results of this paper,the corresponding policy recommendations are put forward.At present,the super long incubation period is only an example,and it is not recommended to take a large-scale policy to extend the quarantine time.The innovation of this paper is to answer the prevention and control effect of quarantine with14 days from the perspective of quarantinefailure rate,and give a real-time calculation formula of quarantine failure rate,which can calculate the change of quarantine failure rate according to the daily increasing diagnosed cases data,and give some suggestions for the adjustment of quarantine policy.