Relationship Between Air Pollution,Meteorological Factors And Incidence Of Infectious Diseases In Guangxi

Based on the 5-year data of incidence of several common infectious diseases(viral hepatitis,dysentery,tuberculosis,mumps,hand-foot-mouth disease),air pollution(AQI,PM2.5,PM 10)and meteorological factors(average air pressure,average temperature,maximum temperature,minimum temperature,average relative humidity,minimum relative humidity)at Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,using ARIMA and ARIMAX to carry out quantitative,qualitative analysis and model simulation of the model data,we can reveal the correlation between them.It further analyzed the key factors that caused the occurrence of these several common infectious diseases and the increase of incidences.This research provided the theoretical support and quantitative basis for effective infectious diseases prevention and decision-makingThe main results are as follows(ⅰ)The incidence of viral hepatitis was significantly correlated with AQI,PM2.5,mean air pressure,mean air temperature and mean relative humidity.It had positive correlation with AQI,PM2.5,PM10,mean air pressure,mean air temperature and minimum air temperature.It had negative correlation with maximum air temperature,mean relative humidity and minimum relative humidity.Considering that the lag-1 negative correlation coefficient of mean relative humidity was significant,it was included in the ARIMA model of viral hepatitis incidence(ⅱ)The incidence of dysentery was significantly correlated with mean air pressure,mean air temperature,minimum air temperature and mean relative humidity.It had positive correlation with mean air pressure.It had negative correlation with mean air temperature,maximum air temperature,minimum air temperature and mean relative humidity.The coefficient of minimum air temperature with lag-9 negative correlation was significant,which was included in ARIMA model of dysentery.(ⅲ)The incidence of tuberculosis was significantly correlated with AQI,PM2.5,PM10,average temperature,maximum temperature,minimum temperature,average relative humidity and minimum relative humidity.It had positive correlation with average air pressure.It had negative correlation with AQI,PM2.5,PM10,average temperature,maximum temperature,minimum temperature,average relative humidity and minimum relative humidity.The coefficient of minimum air temperature with lag-5 negative correlation was significant,so it was included in ARIMA model of dysentery.(ⅳ)The incidence of mumps had a strong correlation with mean air pressure,mean air temperature,maximum air temperature,minimum air temperature,mean relative humidity and minimum relative humidity.It had positive correlation with mean air pressure and negative correlation with mean air temperature,maximum air temperature and minimum air temperature.The coefficient of minimum air temperature of lag-10 negative correlation was significant,so it was included in the ARIMA model of incidence of mumps(ⅴ)The incidence of HFMD was significantly correlated with AQI,PM2.5,PM10,mean air pressure,mean air temperature,maximum air temperature,minimum air temperature,mean relative humidity and minimum relative humidity.It had positive correlation with AQI,PM2.5,PM 10,mean air temperature,maximum air temperature and minimum air temperature.It had negative correlation with mean air pressure,mean relative humidity and minimum relative humidity.The coefficients of lag-5 positive correlation of PM2.5 and the lag-3 negative correlation of average relative humidity were significant,so they were included in the ARIMA model of HFMD incidence.