| Objectives:To analyze the dynamic distribution characteristics of plague among animals and humans of Marmota himalayana plague natural focus of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,Marmota baibacina-Spermophilus undulatus plague natural focus of the Tianshan Mountains,Marmota caudata plague natural focus of the Pamirs Plateau,Marmota sibirica plague natural focus of the Hulun Buir Plateau of Inner Mongolia,Meriones unguiculatus plague natural focus on the Inner Mongolian Plateau within the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,Apodemus chevrieri-Eothenomys miletus plague natural focus of the Highland of Northwestern Yunnan Province.To study the plague-related factors among animals.To provide a scientific basis for further predicting the occurrence and epidemic of plague,as well as adjusting the plague monitoring program and prevention and control measures.Methods:This research includes a statistical analysis of the epidemic characteristics of the animal and human plague,including the plague natural foci of Marmota himalayana plague natural focus,Marmota baibacina-Spermophilus undulatus plague natural focus,Marmota caudata plague natural focus,Marmota sibirica plague natural focus,Meriones unguiculatus plague natural focus within the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and Apodemus chevrieri-Eothenomys miletus plague natural focus.The research data mainly came from the following parts:The plague epidemic history of China which was compiled by the Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology,Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences in 1981,surveillance data from counties,cities and provinces from 1950-2019 where the plague natural foci involved in this study located,and the result obtained by our research team(Laboratory for Emergency Response,National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention,Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention)in the investigation and research of some of the plague mentioned-above natural foci since 2000.We performed statistical analysis of the data using methods including epidemiology,statistics and the GIS method.Excel 2016 is used to organize the data,SPSS 23.0 is used to perform statistical analysis on the data,ArcGIS 10.2 is used to draw geographic graphics.Results:A total of 1,067 human plague cases(735 deaths)were reported from 1950 to 2019 within four Marmota plague natural foci in China,and a total of 5,958 Yersinia pestis isolates were isolated.Between 1950 to 2019,the case fatality rate of primary and secondary pneumonic plague was 75.10%.The rate of other types of plague(such as bubonic and septicemic)was 54.88%.Among the four Marmota plague natural foci in China,no case or isolate has been identified only in the Marmota sibirica plague natural focus.The other three foci have remained active and Y.pestis continues to circulate among local animal hosts,82.06%of the identified Y.pestis isolates were distributed in the Marmota himalayana plague natural focus.From 1950 to 2019,21 human plague cases(6 deaths)were reported in the Meriones unguiculatus plague natural focus within the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and 6,771 Yersinia pestis isolates were isolated.According to the study of factors related to plague among animals from 1981 to 2019,it was found that the higher the Meriones unguiculatus density,the higher the nocturnal rodent capture rate,and the higher the indirect hemagglutination assay(IHA)positive rate of Meriones unguiculatus.Among Apodemus chevrieri-Eothenomys miletus plague natural focus of the Highland of Northwestern Yunnan Province,from 1973 to 2017 in Gucheng District,Yulong county and Jianchuan county.host animal detection of F1 antigen-positive rate was 6.71%(22/328),host animal detection of F1 antibody positive rate was 0.27%(216/79,656),and F1 antibody positive rate of plague indicator animal was 25.35%(421/1,661).Conclusions:The Marmota himalayana plague natural focus is the largest plague natural foci in China.This focus continues to spread violently among animals,and the risk of human plague is the highest and will continue to exist.The plague among animals in the Meriones unguiculatus plague natural focus on the Inner Mongolian Plateau within the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region continue to be prevalent.The human plague cases have increased in the past 20 years,and the animal epidemics are related to the emergence of human cases.In the past 15 years,the Apodemus chevrieri-Eothenomys miletus plague natural focus was in a state of alternating resting and active,but no human plague case has been reported.Plague is a natural focal disease.It is necessary to maintain effective monitoring and discover the epidemic changes in time of plague among animals.The occurrence of plague epidemics among humans should be warned. |
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