Statistical Analysis And Prediction Of Tuberculosis Incidence Data In Beibei District Based On Time Series Model

Tuberculosis is a chronic infectious disease caused by Mycobacterium tuberculosis,which can invade many organs.Pulmonary tuberculosis infection is the most common,so it is necessary to prevent the spread and outbreak of tuberculosis.With the continuous development of society,a variety of medical and health means emerge in endlessly,the incidence of tuberculosis is also decreasing year by year,the incidence of tuberculosis epidemic statistical analysis and prediction of prevention and control is becoming increasingly important.Through the statistical analysis and prediction of the data of tuberculosis patients in Beibei District,Chongqing,this paper can provide reference and basis for all units and departments in dealing with tuberculosis prevention and control.The local data of Beibei District can also provide reference for the prevention and control of tuberculosis in other areas.The results of the study can provide quantitative basis for accurate prediction of tuberculosis epidemic level,scientific,reasonable and efficient distribution of health resources,and lay a foundation for early warning of various legal infectious diseases.In this paper,descriptive statistical analysis of the existing data of tuberculosis patients,to study the trend of the incidence of tuberculosis in Beibei District.Cluster analysis is carried out for streets in Beibei District,and the occurrence similarity of each street town is classified to analyze the reasons for the differences in the occurrence rate of each street town.To analyze the distribution characteristics of different towns,different times and different age groups of patients,and master the law of the spread of tuberculosis virus and the corresponding distribution characteristics.To master the change rule and corresponding distribution characteristics of the incidence of tuberculosis in Beibei District.According to the results of epidemiological statistical analysis of tuberculosis,the annual average incidence of tuberculosis in Beibei District from 2015 to 2019 shows an epidemic trend of first rising and then declining.In 2017,Beibei District has entered the peak incidence of tuberculosis,and the epidemic trend of tuberculosis will continue.The peak time of the disease was autumn and winter,with obvious seasonality.Among them,the incidence of tuberculosis is higher in Dongyang street,Chaoyang Street,Caijiagang street and Tiansheng street.The population distribution of tuberculosis patients shows that the infected population is mainly the middle-aged and old people aged 40-70.Men are more likely to suffer from tuberculosis than women.Through clustering algorithm analysis,17 streets and towns are divided into three categories by using Euclidean distance and system clustering based on class average method.Combined with the regional distribution results in the above-mentioned descriptive analysis of tuberculosis,it is found that the first and third categories in the cluster are areas with high incidence of tuberculosis,and the second category is areas with relatively low incidence of tuberculosis.The result of linear fitting based on time series prediction model is better,and the prediction accuracy of the model is better.At the same time,the model is used to predict the seasonal incidence of tuberculosis in 2020-2022.The results show that the predicted seasonal incidence is still cyclical,and has a high incidence in autumn and winter,and shows a downward trend year by year.Based on the statistical analysis and prediction of the incidence of tuberculosis in Beibei District,the following conclusions are drawn: children should be vaccinated in time;schools should strengthen monitoring and management: control the source of infection,block the route of transmission and strengthen the propaganda of diseases;high incidence areas should strengthen the control;disease prevention and control departments should improve the prevention and control system,establish the system and improve the mechanism;strengthen We should strengthen the supervision of school health management,strengthen the propaganda of disease prevention and control,carry out the propaganda of infectious disease prevention and control,and improve the health awareness of residents.