Study On Transmission Mechanism And Policy Simulation Of "Forest Resource Curse"

As Comrade Xi Jinping pointed out in his special commentary on " Clear waters and green mountains are also mountains of gold and silver".However,in the process of actual economic development,we can observe that some areas with abundant forest resources are just economically poor areas,and have not transformed "clear water and green mountains" into "gold and silver mountains".At the same time,some forestry developed countries have rich forest resources and highly developed economic development level,showing a good situation of coexistence of "green water and green mountains" and "gold and silver mountains",thus the hypothesis of forest resource curse appears.Based on the resource curse hypothesis,this paper used location entropy method,econometrics method and system simulation method to test and analyze the forest resource curse effect of 30 provinces and cities in China.On the basis of distinguishing forest resource abundance and forest resource dependence,this paper firstly constructed the forest resource curse coefficient,then divided 30 provinces and cities into four types of forest resource curse regions by cluster analysis,and selected the typical regions for subsequent research.Secondly,a first-order autoregressive dynamic panel model was constructed to investigate the relationship between forest resources and economic development,and the existence of forest resource curse was empirically tested.Then,the time-individual double-fixed effect model was used to analyze the transmission mechanism through which the forest resources in the cursed area affected the development of forestry economy,and the main transmission mechanism of the curse effect of forest resources was identified.Finally,taking Heilong Province as an example,the system dynamics method was used to simulate and analyze the variable policy transmission mechanism of the region,and the countermeasures to solve the curse of forest resources were obtained according to the analysis results.The main research conclusions of this paper are as follows:First,from the spatial point of view,the distribution of resource curse area and non-resource curse area is basically based on the "Yunnan-Jilin" diagonal line.From the perspective of time,the fluctuation trend of curse coefficient in the four typical regions is not the same.Second,the abundance of forest resources has a significant positive effect on the improvement of the development level of forestry economy,while the dependence of forest resources has a significant negative correlation with the development level of forestry economy.Third,the main transmission mechanism of forest resource curse effect is the "Dutch disease" effect caused by the decrease of manufacturing investment level,the crowding out effect on human capital and scientific and technological innovation,and the weakening of the system caused by the decrease of the degree of opening to the outside world and the level of marketization.Fourthly,adjusting the industrial structure,increasing the investment in education and improving the ecological consciousness of residents can effectively promote the growth of forestry economy in Heilongjiang Province.Fifth,countermeasures to break the curse of forest resources include:increasing investment in scientific and technological innovation;Formulating preferential policies for talents;Adjust the structure of forestry industry;Compensating forest ecological benefits;Raise ecological awareness among residents.The above conclusions have important reference value for forestry management departments to implement related policies and measures.