| Agriculture is the basic industry of the national economy,and the pig industry is one of the important pillar industries of agriculture.Chinese people have had the habit of raising pigs and eating pigs since ancient times.Pork is the most important meat on the Chinese dinner table.Pork consumption accounts for60% of meat consumption.Therefore,the pig industry in China has its special significance.Since pig breeding takes a certain amount of time and cannot be adjusted in time with market demand,the supply of pigs fluctuates cyclically,which is characteristic of vulnerability.Pigs are expensive to hurt the people,pigs are cheap to hurt farmers,and to smooth the fluctuations in the supply of pigs are vital to ensuring national food safety and stabilizing farmers’ income.Since 2000,the supply of pigs in China has maintained a rapid growth,but at the same time,the contradiction between the pig breeding industry and the environment has become increasingly significant,and the scale and efficiency of the pig industry in my country still have a certain gap with the developed countries,although the fluctuation range of the supply of pigs is relatively higher.It has slowed down in the last century,but there are still large fluctuations.In particular,pork prices have risen sharply since 2019,driving the rise in CPI and affecting people’s lives.The decline in the supply of pigs is the reason for this increase in pig prices.First of all,this article analyzes the fluctuations in the supply of pigs since2000,and uses the HP filter method to divide the slaughter cycle and the stock cycle of pigs since 2000.Comparing the supply fluctuations since 2000 with the fluctuations from 1989 to 1999,the study found that 2000 is a beginning of a cycle,since 2000,the fluctuations in the supply of pigs have declined compared with the1990 s,and there have been 4 complete cycles of fluctuations and one time.Incomplete cycle.Secondly,through qualitative analysis,this article finds that the supply of pigs is mainly affected by endogenous and exogenous factors.Endogenous factors include cost factors,price factors,pig growth cycle factors,and scale factors;exogenous factors include macroeconomic conditions,Disease impact,government policies,and prices of substitutes.On this basis,using multiple regression to quantitatively analyze the fluctuation factors of pig supply since 2000,it is found that both the current and the previous period of corn production have a significant positive correlation with the supply of pigs.The price of the current pork bazaar is correlated with the supply of pigs.There is a negative correlation.The pork market price in the previous period is positively correlated with the supply of pigs.The current environmental protection policy is significantly negatively correlated with the supply of pigs.The epidemic in the previous period is significantly negatively correlated with the supply of pigs.The GDP growth rate is related to the support policies for pigs.The correlation with the supply of pigs is not significant.Once again,this article analyzes the abnormal fluctuations in pork prices from 2019 to 2020.The combined effects of African swine fever,environmental protection policies,the new crown pneumonia epidemic,and low income are the reasons for the sharp decline in the supply of pigs this time.Finally,this article sorts out the relevant policies of the pig industry in the past 20 years,analyzes the deficiencies of the existing policies,and further proposes suggestions for the pig policy.Production capacity should be restored as soon as possible in the short term,and efficiency and quality should continue to be improved in the long term. |
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