| Chemical fertilizers have special advantages such as high nutrient content and fast fertilizer efficiency to escort the realization of China’s agricultural economic growth and food security goals.As China faces the basic national conditions of more people and less land,China’s agricultural development mainly promotes increased production and income by increasing land productivity.In the late 1980 s,the large-scale application of chemical fertilizers,pesticides and other agricultural chemicals not only increased land productivity,but also further ensured China’s food security.However,the application of chemical fertilizers in China has been widely faced with problems such as high fertilizer application per mu,unreasonable fertilization structure,and low fertilizer utilization rate.In 2015,the Ministry of Agriculture issued the "Action Plan for Zero Growth in Fertilizer Use by 2020",emphasizing that the use of fertilizers in crops will reach zero growth in 2020.In 2021,the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued the No.1 document on rural revitalization,proposing to continue to promote fertilizer reduction and increase utilization rate.In this context,exploring the practical experience and innovative path of China’s chemical fertilizer reduction action,and proposing an operable,replicable,and extendable long-term governance strategy is an important link in the realization of green and sustainable development of China’s agriculture.Based on the panel data at the provincial level and 176 districts and cities in the southern rice cultivation area from 2001 to 2018,this paper firstly analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the fertilizer application intensity in the southern rice cultivation area,and outlines the fertilizer application in the region based on the Global and Local Moran Index.The spatial correlation characteristics of intensity reveal the temporal and spatial evolution of fertilizer application intensity in the region;secondly,it explores the driving factors of fertilizer application intensity in southern rice cultivation area,and builds a SDM to analyze its economic,social,and natural influence factors,and explore the key driving factors of fertilizer application intensity changes have certain reference significance for promoting fertilizer reduction and efficiency.Based on the above research and analysis,the conclusions of this article are as follows:(1)In terms of time,fertilizer application intensity in southern rice cultivation area fluctuates first and then fluctuates down,showing an inverted U-shaped change.The turning point is2015,"Zero Fertilizer Growth" action has achieved obvious results,but fertilizer application intensity in southern rice cultivation area is still at a relatively high level;in terms of efficiency gains,the effect of fertilizer application on agricultural production has gradually weakened,and fertilizer application intensity and grain yield have gradually increased.With the decoupling trend,there is still room for decline in fertilizer application intensity in the southern rice cultivation area.(2)From a spatial point of view,fertilizer application intensity in the southern rice cultivation area is not independent in spatial distribution,and regional differences are significant.Fertilizer application intensity in coastal areas is generally higher than that in inland areas,and coastal areas are mainly reflected in " high-high" agglomeration characteristics,a small number of districts and cities are characterized by "low-high" agglomeration;inland areas are mainly reflected by "low-low" agglomeration characteristics,and a small number of districts and cities are reflected by "high-low" agglomeration characteristics,high Fertilizer application intensity gradually moved southward.(3)There is a significant temporal and spatial lag in fertilizers application intensity in southern rice cultivation area,that is,positive spatial autocorrelation and time lag;the previous period of chemical fertilizer application intensity and rural residents’ per capita income significantly positively affect the chemical fertilizer application intensity,per capita arable land area,Planting structure and agricultural technology progress significantly negatively affect the fertilizer application intensity,and the transfer of agricultural labor force positively affects the fertilizer application intensity,but not significantly.Based on the main conclusions,this article puts forward relevant policy recommendations:(1)Promote the strategy of “grain storage in technology” in southern rice cultivation area,and promote the improvement of fertilizer quality and efficiency.(2)Strengthen the protection of cultivated land in the southern rice cultivation area and develop moderate-scale operations.(3)Increase the “quantity” and “quality” of the agricultural labor force in the southern rice cultivation area to enhance agricultural competitiveness.(4)Promote cross-regional exchanges and cooperation,and rationally regulate the policies of the southern rice cultivation area to encourage farmers to purchase higher-quality fertilizers. |
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