Analysis And Prediction Of Dynamic Change Of Landscape Pattern Of Land Use In Ganjiang New Area

Since the acceleration of urbanization in recent years,conflicts of population and land-use have aroused wide concerns among scholars in today's society.It is essential to optimize and to improve the landscape patterns regarding land utilization to reach a sustainable development of the man-land relationship.Adjusting landscape patterns' structure of land use is able to achieve rational land use planning and ecological environment protection,that is of importance to the sustainable development of land.Therefore,this paper takes Ganjiang New Area in Jiangxi Province as the research area and uses theoretical references in terms of geography,landscape ecology,planning and other related disciplines.Based on the support of ArcGIS,Fragstats and IDRISI software,it classifies the land use through the remote sensing image data in the study area over a time span of 15 years to produce the different types of land-use images for four periods which are year 2005,year 2010 year 2015 and year 2020 respectively.It also acquires land-use information to calculate indicators referring to land-use transfer matrix and land-use dynamic degree.Secondly,it uses landscape class level and the landscape index of class level to analyze the variation of features of landscape pattern in Ganjiang New Area,simultaneously,adopts moving window method to obtain the spatial distribution of various landscape indices.It performs an in-depth analysis of the dynamic changes regarding the spatial characteristics of the landscape pattern in Ganjiang New Area over the 15 years.Then,it further studies the changes of landscape area under different influencing factors by exploring the influencing factors of land-use and landscape pattern's variation.Finally,it lists advice on sustainable development of Ganjiang New Area through forecasting the status of landscape pattern in the next 5 years via prediction model and referring to both existing research results and future development plans.The results of this study are as follows:(1)Through the analysis of the dynamic evolution of land use data of Ganjiang New Area in the four periods regarding year 2005,2010,2015 and 2020,it is concluded that from 2005 to 2020,the largest proportion of land-use types in Ganjiang New Area is arable land while its area shows the gradual downward trend.The area of construction land has the biggest growth and that of forest land,grassland,water and unused land slowly decreased.The above results are mainly caused by the fast developed urbanization and the occupation of arable land to constuction land,which resulting in the reduction of arable land and that other land types gradually shift to constuction land.(2)The analysis of the spatial change rules in the landscape pattern of Ganjiang New Area with the combination of various landscape indices demonstrates that,at the landscape types level,the fragmentation degree of forest land,arable land and construction land is relatively high as well as the landscape patch index of them possesses irregularity.Also,the maximum of patch indices of arable land and construction land are the largest,and the connectivity,the aggregation are good.The landscape level shows that the degree of clustering between different patch types declines,the level of connectivity decreases,the patch shape tends to be simplified,and the landscape types is diversifying as well as the landscape dominance is decreasing.The spatial distribution under the moving window illustrates that the Ganjiang New Area Gongqing Cluster,the Yongxiu Cluster,the central of the Linkong District and the Economic Development Zone have a higher degree of fragmentation,additionally,the degree of separation becomes larger and the landscape patches become more complex.(3)The analysis of the factors influencing the landscape pattern of land use can be discussed from four perspectives.In terms of elevation,the distribution of landscape types in Ganjiang New Area first increases and then decrease as the increasing elevation level,and the area with the higher elevation seems not conducive to the landscape development.In terms of slope,the distribution of the landscape in Ganjiang New Area is mainly concentrated in the low and medium slope zones.It is obvious that the distribution of the landscape declines with the increasing slope.In terms of rivers,the distribution of arable land,grassland,water and unused land is smaller as the distance to rivers is farther.While the distribution of construction land and forest land is positively correlated to the distance to the river since there is the larger distribution when it is farther away from rivers.In terms of roads,it brings great impacts on the landscape types in Ganjiang New Area which can be described as the landscape is highly dependent on the roads because the smaller the distance to the roads,the more beneficial to the development of all types of landscape.In terms of the administrative center,there is negative correlation existing landscape types and distance to the administrative center.The smaller distance between construction land and the administrative center will induce the expansion of area and rapid development,that indicating the constuction land have strong dependence on the distance to the administrative centre.(4)The MCE-CA-Markov model was adopted to implement the simulation and prediction of the landscape pattern of land-use in Ganjiang New Area in 2025.The area of arable land continues to decrease and the area of construction land continues to rise,and the grassland and water landscape assumes the reduced tendency.Moreover,the area of woodland slightly declines while the area of unused land keep unchanged basically due to the total quantity is small.In addition,the degree of landscape fragmentation is continually strengthening,and the spread as well as the connectivity between landscape patches are descending.The shape of patches is unstable and is developing in a diversified manner.