Validation of the Land Transformation Model (LTM) to predict land use changes in Grand Blanc Township, Michigan

The research examined the predicted patterns of urbanization in the Charter Township of Grand Blanc, Michigan using the Land Transformation Model (LTM). The LTM modeling engine utilizes an artificial neural network to predict urbanization trends through the input of land use data and “driving” variables shown to influence land use change. Land use data from 1978 and 2000 along with six driving variables were input to predict urbanization patterns for the year 2000 and future urbanization patterns at intervals ranging from five to one-hundred percent. These predicted urbanization patterns were compared with current land use data to evaluate the predictive accuracy of the LTM via comparisons of predicted versus actual areas transitioning to urban uses. Township officials were then interviewed to solicit their opinions and reactions regarding the accuracy of the predictions of 2000 urbanization and future urbanization patterns depicted at increasing percentages.