| Social Disorganization theory, originally developed in 1942 by Shaw and McKay, suggests that neighborhood ties and mechanisms of informal control work to prevent crime. Following Rose and Clear's 1998 research, this study tests the relationship between incarceration and social disorganization through coercive mobility, or the destruction of community ties by removing residents through incarceration. Although the data points for concentrated disadvantage and incarceration were too stable and highly correlated over time at 1990 and 2000 to estimate the cross-lagged effects, separate Time 1 and Time 2 equations revealed that incarceration may contribute to further concentrated disadvantage and social disorganization may contribute to incarceration at Time 1, controlling for percent ages 15 to 34, Hispanic origin, renting residents, and crime. However, the relationship is not significant by 2000 (Time 2). This is likely due to the fact that the rates of incarceration in Chicago neighborhoods were actually declining from 1990 to 2000, distinguishing it from other large cities. |
